SO, NOW at least they know. Italy may have made heavy weather of procuring a cherished fourth try and bonus point win over the USA in Nelson yesterday but if nothing else it simplifies the equation for Ireland. Two bonus points in defeat, or a draw, would suffice to earn qualification against the Italians in Dunedin on Sunday, and as Pool C winners, but in reality they have to win.

In the virtual certainty that Australia complete a bonus-point win over Russia in Saturday’s early kick-off, Ireland will go into the last of the 40 qualifying matches in the newly built Otago Stadium (kick-off 8.30pm local time/8.30am Irish) with the stark reality that defeat will condemn them to a flight home on Monday, as the first criteria for separating two sides who finish level on points is their head-to-head meeting.

Finishing second is not really an option now. Losing is not really an option now. It’s top or out. It’s win or bust.

Thus, in essence, the epic 15-6 win over Australia in Eden Park last Saturday week counts for nothing now, or at any rate it may not do come the full-time whistle on Sunday.

The failure to obtain a fourth try and bonus point in the opening 22-10 win over the Eagles – notably when losing control of an attacking scrum in the final quarter – has come home to roost slightly.

Had Ireland done so, they’d have a whole lot more elbow room this Sunday.

In that scenario, they would only need one match point against Italy – ie a defeat by less than eight points – to not only qualify but to top the group regardless of what kind of cricket score Australia run up against the Bears from Russia.

Alas and alack, there’s little point in crying over spilt milk, as it were, now.

Ironically, having procured their third try on half-time against the USA Eagles yesterday through Martin Castrogiovanni, the Azzurri huffed and puffed and scrummed until eventually – in another irony – Irish referee George Clancy awarded the Italians a 66th-minute penalty try to complete a 27-10 win.

Afterwards, having ensured that a win on Sunday (unless Ireland obtain two bonus points in defeat) will earn them an historic first World Cup quarter-final, Italy’s articulate and clever South African coach Nick Mallett was immediately bullish about their chances.

“Ireland are a great side and played very well against Australia. They dominated Australia physically but we know perfectly well that we’ve got a better frontrow than Ireland, and we’re going to go in there to prove that on Sunday,” he declared in his post-match television interview, and thus to the widest audience possible (with Sunday’s referee Jonathan Kaplan assuredly his main target).

“I’m hoping that Castrogiovanni, Leonardo (Ghiraldini) and Salvatore (Perugini) can put us on the front foot,” he added, “and if you’re on the front foot it’s makes it more difficult for them.”

There will be relief within the Irish camp that Kaplan will be in charge, rather than Romain Poite. The French official refereed the last two Ireland-Italy Six Nations games, prompting a little pre-match gamesmanship from Mallett prior to last February’s meeting in Rome.

The day before the game, Mallett claimed that Poite had written to the Italian Federation apologising for the way he had interpreted the scrums in Ireland’s 29-11 win at Croke Park a year before – and specifically for penalising Castrogiovanni on four occasions at scrums.

The penalty count duly went 13-5 to the home side in Rome, with Ireland being penalised six times at scrum time, and even connoisseurs of the frontrow’s dark arts couldn’t interpret some of Poite’s decisions.

Whereupon, Mallett subsequently admitted that no letter had been penned by Poite.

Such pre-match chicanery by Mallett did not surprise Gert Smal, who has played against his compatriot, as well as coached against him, for over 30 years. “No, that’s typical Nick. He’ll do anything. He’s quite outspoken. You’ll see him with his views when you speak to him. He speaks his mind. He will put pressure on where he can,” said Smal.

The Italian frontrow in both those games was the same as last night in Nelson, while the Irish frontrow is likely to be the same as when the sides last met.

Conditions were much less of a leveller on the tip of the north island in Nelson last night and thus more conducive to the Italians obtaining a bonus-point win, and prior to their fourth try, the Azzurri were three times denied by the TMO after getting over the USA line.

“It’s hard to believe that after that big win against Australia that we find ourselves in this situation,” admitted Rob Kearney. “It just shows that bonus points are important and scoring tries is important but I think as well that we’re lucky to have played so many Heineken Cup matches in knockout stages and we’re all well used to those high-pressure situations, knowing that you can be going home at any one time after a game. I think it just puts more emphasis on being clinical, taking your opportunities when they come and (not) making as many errors as possible.”

Indeed, the Irish players are, to all intents and purposes, playing the equivalent of a January round six pool game in the Heineken Cup. But the Italians look a more rounded and dangerous side now than the one that missed out on a first quarter-final four years ago by one kick in the final pool game against Scotland.

“The Italians are constantly improving as a side,” admitted Kearney. “We have beaten them 15 years in a row now, I believe, and that is going to change some day, we can’t keep beating them forever, we were bloody lucky to beat them in February, we probably didn’t deserve to win that game but we got away closely and we know that we have said all along that this is the game they are targeting.

“The Irish is the one game they feel they can create the big upset and spoil the party. I think we have to take that a little bit personally as well. And just be on our guard as well that they are going to put something extra into this weekend.”

That much is guaranteed.