Ireland v France in February in Dublin used to have different connotations. Time was when Ireland would have been conducting a Friday night raindance while France would have been praying for some Parisian-like spring sunshine on their backs. And all this with five Shannonmen and nine Munstermen in the Irish team. How times change.

When the Irish players and supporters alike open their curtains this morning, they'll be glad to see more of the same spring sunshine of the last week. By comparison, more traditional Irish weather and a repeat of the trench warfare in the corresponding fixture two years ago appears better suited to current French strengths.

Which is not to say that the French forwards won't revel in the opportunity which dry conditions offer to take the Irish pack on while staying on their feet.

Indeed, in all probability the French will target the scrums as much as they've ever done; the video of Ireland's difficulties in Rome will have encouraged them. France will try to biff Ireland about up front, maul off lineouts and rumble off the target runners, such as Sylvain Marconnet, Christophe Juillet and Fabien Pelous close in, with Olivier Magne to follow from quick ball.

All the way through their ranks, right out to the abrasive Richard Dourthe, this French side is packed with powerful straight runners.

It promises to be ultra-physical, especially at the start. As pace is a defensive virtue as much as an offensive one, Ireland look better equipped to cope with the French out wide once they have the numbers there.

The key to this afternoon's riddle would seem to be whether the Irish pack can withstand the aggression and, at the least, command their set-pieces.

It's a curious truism of sport that when one specific area or individual face-off is highlighted beforehand, it often pans out as almost peripheral. Nonetheless, the adage that packs win matches and backs by how much still has some virtue, and the scrums especially look like a marker for the match.

Recalling how a seven-man Irish pack, with this same Irish front row and Anthony Foley temporarily filling in at lock, was able to get a shove on the French scrum last year, one wonders too if it will be quite the Achilles heel many expect. The 100 scrums or so earlier this week is 100 or so more than were done before the Italian game and should produce an improvement. While number eight, Victor Costello-like charges from the base are no longer the Irish scrum's staple diet, clean, quick feeds still provided the platform for two of Brian O'Driscoll's three tries last year.

The quality of the lineout ball, recalling how Simon Easterby's hands at the tail were the platform for so much of O'Gara's most potent, flat running game, is equally critical, especially if the French doublemark Malcolm O'Kelly. It would assuredly be a bigger boon to have Jeremy Davidson springing from the bench in the second half when the game will likely still be in the balance.

There's a nagging thought that the bigger, more physical, packorientated sides have been the ones to most inconvenience Irish/Munster sides, even since the post-Twickenham revolution. Furthermore, this more refreshed French side have been given another chance en bloc by Laporte. But the guillotine lurks and so they seem primed for a big performance.

The weight of historical baggage is pretty one-sided too. Not since the early 1970s have Ireland beaten France twice running, not since 1983 have they beaten them at Lansdowne Road, and France, after all, are recent World Cup finalists who toppled the All Blacks again last November.

Yet it's a measure of the progress in Irish rugby that under Warren Gatland there haven't been more than two points between the sides in three meetings. With the winners set to stand alongside England atop the table, there could be just a kick in it again.

Ireland retain a dozen of last year's Parisian victors, France only three of their starting lineup. Ireland can now break a game with David Wallace carrying the ball, though they do miss Kieron Dawson's continuity work on the ground.

France have gained potency up front - Magne alone would provide that - and while Franck Comba and Dourthe surely can't be as bad again as they were a fortnight ago, whatever else, France have stiffened up their defence. As Eddie O'Sullivan commented yesterday of France's laboured win over the Scots: "They defended extremely well and recycled their defence even when attacked off quick ruck ball, which is the acid test."

Looked at coldly like that, the odds have possibly tilted toward France. What's more, last year's fixture saw huge, huge games put in by Peter Clohessy, Malcolm O'Kelly, Anthony Foley, Peter Stringer, Rob Henderson, Denis Hickie and you know who.

Then again, there's a palpable confidence in the Irish ranks, there's no advance excuses this time, and they too are primed for some big performances. As for the O'Driscoll factor: while last year's match-winner extraordinaire is a 33 to 1 shot to score another hat-trick, which is about right, as a magnet for the French defence he could be a different sort of trump card.

What gives the Irish cause real sustenance is that, were the game to go down to the wire in the last quarter, they have the mental strength as well as the physical fitness to pull through.

This is a litmus test for the Irish pack, and if their scrum isn't bossed about, then Ireland could even make a little bit of hay while the sun shines. Either way, it has the makings of a cracking good game.