RACING:IT'S EASY to twist the complexion of today's Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup any number of ways, but, ultimately, the face at the front of the festival's ultimate prize looks like remaining Imperial Commander's.
The reigning title-holder has only been seen in action once this season but compared to the question-marks hanging over some of his opposition that is a trifling quibble.
Certainly when punters find themselves trying to second-guess the weather it is time to get very wary indeed and forecast rain this morning – of indeterminate amount – makes a trappy puzzle seem even more tricky.
Ground conditions are hugely important to the three Irish hopefuls but in differing ways.
The Hennessy winner Kempes and China Rock, whose trainer Mouse Morris supplied the last Irish winner of the great race, War Of Attrition, want any rain to stay away. Noel Meade is probably prepared to do a rain-dance for his Lexus victor Pandorama.
“We’re very happy with him but the ground is drying out and unless it is no quicker than good to soft in the morning then it is most unlikely he will run. We would love to see some rain,” Meade said yesterday.
Ground conditions are largely irrelevant, though, to the steeplechasing’s rising star, Long Run, who turned the King George at Kempton into a procession a couple of months ago.
Instead questions about the ex-French star revolve, a little unfairly, around his amateur jockey and much more relevantly about a less than inspiring record over Cheltenham’s undulations.
Defeat in last year’s RSA was just about excusable after a long season but considering his King George rout, it was remarkable how the Nicky Henderson-trained star got turned over in the Paddy Power Handicap Chase here in November.
Long Run’s rider, Sam Waley-Cohen, said yesterday: “It’s an accusation (his alleged inability to handle Cheltenham) that’s very easy to make and one you’ve got to answer. But going into the RSA last season there were some niggling doubts about whether he was in the best form – maybe he wasn’t as sparky as we wanted. I don’t have any concerns about the course.”
No such doubts surround the venerable pair of Kauto Star and Denman, who have dominated the Gold Cup picture for most of the last half decade and who remain iconic figures within the sport.
Their much anticipated “mano-a-mano” clash last year failed to occur with Kauto falling when beaten four out, and Denman failing to get to grips with Imperial Commander. The suspicion remains that if they couldn’t win between them last year, they are hardly at the stage of their careers to do so now.
Ruby Walsh, however, was yesterday eagerly anticipating a fifth Gold Cup ride on Kauto Star, the horse he rates the best he’s ever ridden. “He’s maybe not as quick as he used to be, but he’s not seven anymore, he’s 11, but he’s in great form. He travelled really well in a gallop recently and picked up when I asked. I couldn’t pull him up,” he said.
“But I always think champions are hard to beat and Imperial Commander will be. Long Run was terribly impressive in the King George, but I just wonder if he’s vulnerable on good ground. We know Kauto was under the weather in the King George and we know he acts around Cheltenham. That is what we are clinging to in the hope of beating Long Run,” Walsh added.
Walsh’s analysis of these big races is usually spot-on and it is significant he rates Imperial Commander the one to beat.
At 10, the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained star is hardly a spring chicken himself but compared to Denman and Kauto Star he has relatively few miles on the clock. His course record is hugely impressive and his overall form suggests he runs best fresh.
A slight concern this week has been the form shown by some of the Twiston-Davies team but with Baby Run also back today to defend his Christies Foxhunters crown, that could change with a vengeance.
“Everything has been one hundred per cent with Imperial Commander for the last few weeks,” Twiston-Davies said. “There’s a bit of rain forecast, depending on who you listen too but I don’t think it really matters at all to him. There’s a lot of talk about the old guard and the new guard, but they’ve all got him to beat.”
Twist that summary any which you like and it’s still hard to argue with.
Brian's trio
Winner Imperial Commander
Second Long Run
Third Kempes
