Handicapper says Sea The Stars is a shoo-in for Classic

SEA THE STARS is far from a certain starter in next month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, but official encouragement came yesterday …

SEA THE STARS is far from a certain starter in next month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic, but official encouragement came yesterday that the great horse could be a “shoo-in” if he does line up in the $5 million (€3.4 million) highlight at Santa Anita.

John Oxx appeared earlier this week to be leaning towards avoiding a trip to America, but insisted a final decision won’t be made until next week when it will be clearer how Sea The Stars has emerged from his Arc heroics in Paris on Sunday.

That was enough for Santa Anita president Ron Charles to tell US reporters: “We’re going to do everything we can to try and attract him. We need a marquee horse and Sea The Stars is that horse worldwide.”

The six-time Group One winner has thrived during a busy European season, but Oxx is concerned that a 6,000-mile journey to Los Angeles could be a step too far.

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However, if Sea The Stars continues to give all the right physical signals, Ireland’s senior handicapper believes the Classic could be his for the taking.

“All things being equal, if he reproduces his form, Sea The Stars is a shoo-in,” Garry O’Gorman said. “What would make it more interesting is if the top American filly Zenyatta ran, but there is no guarantee that either of them will run in the Classic as Zenyatta’s connections seem intent on maintaining an unbeaten record.

“On the evidence of last year, the Pro-Ride surface at Santa Anita looks to favour turf horses more than dirt horses, so I think that will be the least of John Oxx’s worries. But what I think was noticeable on the run-up to the Arc was that no one mentioned Dancing Brave was beaten in the Breeders’ Cup in his year. All people spoke about was his Arc win. Certainly I don’t think Sea The Stars would lose anything in defeat if he was beaten at Santa Anita, and he will be a long time retired.

“John Oxx has done a magnificent job with him all season and he has two weeks now to read the tea leaves in terms of if Sea The Stars continues to thrive. Ultimately the horse will tell him about the Breeders’ Cup,” he added.

Sea The Stars remains an odds-on favourite, but one horse who won’t be pursuing an international agenda this year is Profound Beauty, who won’t try to improve on her 2008 fifth in the Melbourne Cup. After disputing favouritism during much of the summer for the race that stops a nation, Profound Beauty was due to travel to Australia tomorrow. But her owners, the Moyglare Stud, have made a last-minute decision against travelling.

“It’s a major disappointment but it is a decision taken by the owners,” said trainer Dermot Weld’s son, Mark, yesterday. “She worked very well on Monday and was right back to her summer form. But the owners have decided not to travel.”

The Moyglare-Weld team do, however, look to have a good chance at Navan’s all-flat card this afternoon where the Stakes-placed Sense Of Purpose can beat Lady Lupus in the mile fillies maiden.

Aidan O’Brien has won the juvenile colts maiden four times in the last eight years, including in 2006 with the subsequent Irish Derby and Coronation Cup hero Soldier Of Fortune.

The champion trainer throws five at the race this time, and Johnny Murtagh’s presence on the Montjeu colt September Morn will sway many punters.

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor

Brian O'Connor is the racing correspondent of The Irish Times. He also writes the Tipping Point column