POOL SIX TOULOUSE v CONNACHTBOOKMAKER ODDS this week have directed attention towards an anticipated calamity in Toulouse. Whatever the views on spread betting the plus and minus 26 beside the names of Connacht and the French aristocrats means informed layers of odds believe there will be a hill of points separating the two this weekend. The numbers say Connacht will not be the winners.

These are difficult times. Aironi last week was the 13th consecutive defeat. Not good. But in keeping with what they set out to do, Connacht’s ambitions for the season retain a heartbeat.

Coach Eric Elwood has tried to face the season without losing sight of their goals. Nor has he been in a position to believe Connacht would miraculously become world-beaters. The goals have been attainable, modest but a step up from before. Connacht want a first Heineken Cup win and to be able to glance back in the spring at their most successful season ever.

Equal to the other provinces yet not, measurement with the same rule as Leinster or Munster invites failure. Toulouse offer hope in the sense the next match always does and next week Harlequins will too. The best in France, the best in England; not the two sides Connacht would have picked to hit their high notes.

“We’re fortunate in the fact Leinster and Munster really set the standard in terms of Irish rugby. We play them every year twice a year,” says captain Gavin Duffy. “We know we are up against it in Toulouse. At least we have the experience of playing against the best teams in Europe. That will give us some sort of confidence but we are under no illusions.

“It’s a case of when we are good we are very good and when we are bad we are awful. That breaks two ways. You can either get down and beat yourself up and just focus solely on that. If you do that you get nowhere.”

Duffy knows Connacht better than most. Apart from a spell at Harlequins from 2003-06 he has always played in Galway. His career has moved with the club. He knows in one sense Connacht’s lack of consistency is inexplicable, although the errors, the inconsistencies, are there for all to see.

The coaches address it. The players address it yet they continue to only occasionally meet the levels they need to. It’s no comfort that Ulster were once there.

“There has been a lot more expected of us over the last two seasons because we have played better rugby. When we do drop off in the standards, it has been a lot more noticeable than previously. You can say that straight after a game the confidence can be lost for a couple of days.

“We come in Monday morning with a good attitude every week. The coaches are raring to go. We pick ourselves up . . . we’ve another shot at it this weekend. That’s how we look at it. It’s another opportunity, whether it’s increased performance levels or getting a famous win. There is always something to play for the following weekend.”

If Duffy reflects the team view, then it is that the players more than the coaches are the hindrance. Reviewing videos and the dreaded statistics shine a light on every aspect. Connacht’s frustration is that they can see and feel what they need to do but possess the tools to do it only sporadically.

It’s a heartless game and there are reasons for it, rooted in IRFU policy. But going there is also self-defeating. Going there involves the built-in reasons to lose.

“We want to get away from Connacht of old,” says Duffy. “You know when the back-against-the-wall Connacht comes out fighting. We don’t want ourselves in that position where our backs are always against the wall. We’ve talked, looked at the videos, had harsh words. Players realise the buck stops at us. We’ve got to show what we are about on Saturday and then for the rest of the season. We’ve got to stop this up-and-down curve we’re on.”

It’s all quite simple. Toulouse and their 28 international players but without the bookmakers’ 26; Harlequins at home and a rousing finale, then kick on and up in the Pro12; Duffy is clear about what could make Connacht sparkle. “Turn around our season and at the end of April, May say that’s Connacht’s best ever season,” he says. “The run we’ve had, the squad of players in terms of lack of numbers and juries . . . Yeah, we’d be proud of that.”