It's tight at the top. Appropriately, given it's a league notable for having a number of good sides but lacking a great one, and almost predictably, Saturday's penultimate round of results in the Division One of the AIB All-Ireland League conspired to leave everything up for grabs.
As things stand, no club has even assured themselves of a coveted top four position and a place in the semi-finals of the play-offs. Seven clubs are still, mathematically, in contention, though after a fourth successive defeat on Saturday at Lansdowne, Ballymena would need to win their three games in hand to still be in the hunt on the last day of the regular Division One campaign, on April 17th.
The situation may, though, become clearer as the four back matches are played. For example, if Buccaneers win away to Shannon in their re-arranged match on March 27th, then they will be the first team to reach the play-offs.
However, victory for Shannon in that game will effectively ensure that at least six clubs will still be in very real contention for the play-offs come that final round of matches on April 17th. If so, then there should be a couple of humdingers in potential win-or-bust encounters between Buccaneers and Lansdowne in Keane Park, and Cork Constitution against Shannon in Temple Hill.
As expected, 14 points looks like being the threshold for qualification, although then points differential is likely to be decisive. Conceivably, as many as five clubs could finish level on 14 points.
Garryowen, in pole position, are thus best primed for qualification, given they've the best points differential in the division. However, as they know only too well from three years ago, even with nothing tangible to play for, Munsters would not be ideal last day hosts, although in the heel of the hunt it would probably need a draw between Buccaneers and Lansdowne to deny Garryowen a top four finish.
Contrary to some pronouncements on Saturday, Buccaneers aren't there yet. Indeed, defeat to Shannon and Lansdowne would almost certainly see them miss out given their relatively poor points differential. Likewise, defeat at Buccaneers would assuredly see Lansdowne (who have the worst points differential of the top seven) miss out.
Cork Constitution, given their healthy points differential, will probably need to win only one of their remaining games at home to Ballymena or away to Shannon, to ensure qualification. As for the regrouped champions, they still have no margin for error, and must beat both Buccaneers and Constitution, preferably with a few points to spare. Even then, they could miss out on points differential.
Remaining Fixtures: March 27th: Shannon v Buccaneers, Ballymena v Terenure. April 3rd: Cork Con v Ballymena. April 11th: Galwegians v Ballymena. April 17th: Y Munster v Garryowen, Buccaneers v Lansdowne, Terenure v Clontarf, Galwegians v St Mary's, Cork Con v Shannon, Blackrock v Ballymena. (Matches re-arranged for April 17th may revert to April 3rd if both teams agree).
In the event of two clubs finishing with the same points and equal points differential, their final standings will be determined by their number of tries scored.
