CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL: Maybe it's because it's the Champion Hurdle rather than the Gold Cup but there are a couple of things that Noel Chance can't figure out about today's big race. One is that he can't understand everybody knocking the standard of the runners in it and the other is why Rhinestone Cowboy is billed as the best of the dark horses.
For months now the Dublin-born trainer has been shouting the virtues of his own joker in the pack, Flame Creek. Last November he even backed the words up with a 66 to 1 ante-post bet. And yet all everyone wants to talk about is Rhinestone Cowboy.
He suspects it might be because of the lack of fences. Put the big boys in front of a Chance-trained horse and suddenly the critics start taking him a lot more seriously. Two Gold Cup victories and a SunAlliance see to that. "A person gets categorised over here. I've been seen as a chasing trainer and I haven't had a chase winner all year!" he grins.
Some shrewdies have seen past the perception, however, and identified Flame Creek as a real contender for today's race despite his inexperience. Just six career starts doesn't give a lot to go on but five wins indicate a real talent. "The pre-requisite with this horse is good ground. The only time he has been beaten was on horrible ground at Folkestone when I ran him against my better judgement and he got beaten by a 100 to 1 shot.
"But there's nothing wrong with his courage. In December he ran at Cheltenham, again on horrible ground, and at the top of the hill, I thought he had no chance of being in the first three. But he won going away at the end," Chance adds.
When the garrulous trainer is in such form it usually pays to listen. Those with good memories will remember how Looks Like Trouble's SunAlliance victory was overlooked in the aftermath of Nick Dundee's fall. Chance's confidence in his own horse was largely ignored until a Gold Cup success in 2000 left no one in doubt about his judgement.
Throw in Mr Mulligan's Gold Cup (1997) and it's clear the man is a festival specialist to rank with any other at Cheltenham today. "Flame Creek has been maligned for not doing enough but he hasn't been asked to. You always take the easiest route to a championship race. I remember Looks Like Trouble being criticised for running in un-competitive races but that's the way to do it. There's a Champion Hurdle almost every weekend over here. Run in them all and the horse is bottomed," Chance argues.
However, a glimpse of Flame Creek's real ability emerged on his last start when running away with the Haydock Trial from last year's Coral Cup winner Ilnamar.
"He showed improvement there. He will have to improve again for Cheltenham but he keeps doing it. I know people say "Ilnamar" but he was fancied that day. McCoy went up to ride him," he remembers.
It's that sort of potential that's Flame Creek's contribution to a Champion Hurdle that looks one of the most competitive for years. "One of the most open and one of the best. There's not a horse missing, except Istabraq, and that's no harm because it means no 4 to 6 chance. I think there is plenty of quality in it. I don't know what people are going on about," Chance says.
Rhinestone Cowboy is the other popular hobby horse but the star novice hasn't convinced Chance to start quaking in his shoes. "He appears the business but he has got to go up that hill and he is quite novicey still. I'm not nervous about him or anything else at the festival any more.
"I remember scarcely being able to put the saddle on Mr Mulligan before he ran in the SunAlliance (1996) I was so nervous. Since then it's not a problem. Pressure is when you've got your last bob on a bumper at Bangor-on-Dee. Not this," he says.
Martin Pipe and Nicky Henderson, the two most successful modern trainers at the festival, have failed to win both the Champion Hurdle and the Gold Cup. Not for the first time, Noel Chance could trump them all again.
