RUGBY WORLD CUP:AUSTRALIA'S status as second favourites behind New Zealand (4/6) have hardened to 10/3, with South Africa at 8/1 and France making more appeal as proverbial dark horses at 16/1 than England at the same odds.
Ireland are 40/1 shots, with the quarter-finals their favoured point of elimination at 8/13, whereas they are 13/5 to reach the semi-finals.
Backing an All Blacks’ outside back to be the competition’s top try scorer has been more remunerative than backing them to win the tournament since their inaugural win in ’87, as they’ve always been able to dip their bread in the pool stages.
Since Craig Green and John Kirwan were joint top try scorers in ’87 with six apiece, that feat was again emulated by Jonah Lomu and Mark Ellis (with seven apiece) in ’95 before Lomu (eight) pipped Jeff Wilson (seven) in ’99 and then Mils Muliaina and Doug Howlett jointly led the way with seven apiece in ’03 (closely followed by Joe Rokocoko on six.
Graham Henry’s opening back three selection has complicated matters, though Corey Jane remains 8/1 favourite despite not being picked against Tonga.
By contrast, Isa Toeava has shortened from 16/1 to 11/1, while the Wallabies’ Digby Ioane has moved from 12/1 to 10/1.
Having been picked at fullback, Israel Dagg has only come in a point, to 11/1. But as he’s been afforded first go at fullback, a good start would assuredly see him retained for he could be accommodated on the wing even if Muliaina is recalled.
Dagg is a sensational runner with ball in hand, having that Kiwi trademark of being able to change direction at full tilt, and could be the star of the tournament.
A similar logic could apply to Maxime Medard, given he can play fullback or wing, though one is tempting fate by backing a Frenchman given Mr Tinkerman’s selections. Even so, he has moved from 30/1 to 25/1, while Vincent Clerc has shortened from 33/1 to 25/1.
New Zealand television cameras were permitted to scan the room when IRB referees chief Paddy O’Brien called all 10 tournament referees together for a pre-tournament briefing. O’Brien has made assurances there will be no sudden changed emphasis to any of the game’s laws for the competition, though interestingly he did reveal the referees were reminded of their responsibilities with regard to offside, especially close to the rucks, ie “fringing”.
If policed a tad more stringently than was the case throughout much of August, that would be a welcome development.
It still rankles that the likes of Alan Lewis and Mark Lawrence are not officiating at this World Cup whereas Romain Poite and Dave Pearson are. In their absence, Alain Rolland (who took charge of the SouthAfrica-England final in Paris four years ago) and Craig Joubert are understandably the joint favourites to referee the final.
The New Zealand-born Steve Walsh, re-born through the Australian Union, is thus just as understandably one of the outsiders to oversee the final.
Though the odds on France or England making the final are longer, he is joined at 22/1 by Poite and Pearson. Eh, here’s hoping.
