Today's Esat Digifone Champion Stakes is a true showpiece race, with five of the eight runners already Group One winners. The dual King George And Queen Elizabeth Stakes winner Swain is likely to start a warm favourite to lead them home but why not take a chance on Alborada to join the Group One brigade.
The Sir Mark Prescott-trained filly has yet to score at the very highest level but has done everything right so far this season, winning the Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh and then emulating her sister, Last Second, by taking Goodwood's Nassau Stakes.
Compared to Swain, the Juddmonte winner, One So Wonderful, the wonder two-year-old Xaar and the home classic fillies, Shahtoush and Tarascon, that is not obvious winning form and Prescott was suitably circumspect yesterday.
"Looking at the field she is up against it and there will be a furious pace to suit Swain, but she has won her three Group races and is entitled to be there. She is very well at the moment," he said and the last comment is important because Alborada is definitely the improving horse of the race.
If Swain is still improving on a glittering career, he could do someone an injury. Frankie Dettori takes the ride on the Godolphin six-year-old, who has been Arc placed and won a Coronation Cup, in addition to his memorable King George wins which have seen him earn prizemoney of £1.82 million.
However, Swain has never won at less than 12 furlongs and no King George winner has ever won this race. Happy Valentine will ensure a hot pace but, at short odds, Swain looks worth opposing.
One So Wonderful just got home in that controversial finish at York, but thrilling as that was, this year's Juddmonte hardly looked a vintage renewal. However, she will be a formidable opponent and looks a safer option than Xaar. The home team are up against it on the evidence of this decade, as Timarida (1996) is the only Irish-trained winner in the 90s. Tarascon may find this 10 furlongs too far and Shahtoush could find it too short, while Make No Mistake doesn't look quite up to this.
Instead, rely on the progressive Alborada to surprise the favourites at a decent price.
The other pattern race on the card, the Group Three Park Hotel Flying Five, also looks set to go to a raider, in this case Tedburrow. Willie Supple's mount is the highest rated in the race. A winner of a Chester stakes race, he was then only sixth to Land Of Dreams at Goodwood in the King George Stakes. Today's race looks weaker than that and Tedburrow is preferred to the Dettori-ridden Rhine Valley and Lady Shannon, who bids to give Dermot Weld a fifth success in this race this decade. Quinze will be hard to beat as he tries to continue his incredible run of success in the £30,000 September Handicap. The gelding has been a credit to his connections and showed a lot of guts to beat Bootlegger in the Guinness Gold Cup at Tralee last time. Quinze has an 8lb penalty for winning in Kerry and that could swing things Bootlegger's way.
In the opening juvenile maiden, Michael Kinane rides the Zafonic colt, Zinedine, for Aidan O'Brien and this horse, beaten a length by Clodion on his debut at Deauville last month, should have improved.
