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Aviation sector faces turbulence on the path to net zero

As airlines and airports push to decarbonise, high fuel costs, limited supply of sustainable aviation fuel and slow tech advancement threaten to ground the flight of progress

Sustainable aviation fuel could cut emissions, but high costs and limited supply mean Ireland must act fast to scale up production
Sustainable aviation fuel could cut emissions, but high costs and limited supply mean Ireland must act fast to scale up production

Ireland is a small island nation with an export led economy, which makes aviation pivotal to its success. At the same time, both Ireland as a whole and the aviation sector are under pressure to reach climate targets, with many large airlines targeting net zero by 2050.

It is a challenge that the sector has embraced but one that comes with complications.

Prof Marina Efthymiou, professor of aviation management at DCU
Prof Marina Efthymiou, professor of aviation management at DCU

“The pathway to decarbonising aviation faces major gaps,” says Prof Marina Efthymiou, professor of aviation management at DCU. “Notably the scale-up and cost of sustainable aviation fuels, the flattening of aircraft technology improvements, and the uncertainty of hydrogen or synthetic fuels before 2040.

“These challenges are compounded by long aircraft lifetimes, weak policy signals, and the difficulty of scaling carbon removals, all of which risk locking the sector into high emissions if action is delayed.”

Donal Moriarty, chief corporate affairs officer, Aer Lingus:
Donal Moriarty, chief corporate affairs officer, Aer Lingus:

Tough as the challenge is, it is one the sector is working to tackle. “The industry continues to invest in new technology aircraft and next generation aircraft, which are achieving up to 20 per cent lower fuel burn per seat than previous generation aircraft and have a 50 per cent reduction in noise footprint,” says Donal Moriarty, Aer Lingus chief corporate affairs officer.

Sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) has been highlighted by the sector as playing a key role in reaching the net zero target. That comes with its own complications.

Andrea Carroll,group head of environmental sustainability, DAA, Jack Chambers TD, Minister of State for Transport and Vincent Harrison, chief commercial and development officer, DAA, pictured at the announcement of a new solar farm under construction at Dublin Airport. Photograph: Robbie Reynolds
Andrea Carroll,group head of environmental sustainability, DAA, Jack Chambers TD, Minister of State for Transport and Vincent Harrison, chief commercial and development officer, DAA, pictured at the announcement of a new solar farm under construction at Dublin Airport. Photograph: Robbie Reynolds

“SAF is one of the key levers identified now that will help to cut aviation related emissions. It can be a drop-in solution for existing aircraft, making it the most immediate step that airlines can choose to decarbonise,” says Andrea Carroll, director of sustainability with DAA.

“The challenge is not a willingness to use SAF but a lack of supply at the scale required. Global production is still very low, and what exists is mainly bio-based, which has feedstock, land-use and cost constraints.”

Carroll says that SAF combined with other emerging technologies offer a real solution but one that requires work.

“It is cleaner, scalable, and avoids land-use pressures. Ireland does not yet produce SAF locally, and developing an indigenous supply chain would reduce carbon intensity and ensure energy security,” she says.

That lack of domestic SAF production is of concern to Efthymiou. “The country is fully reliant on imports. Establishing a local industry is constrained by limited feedstock availability, as Ireland lacks sufficient sustainable biomass resources and will likely need to focus on advanced pathways such as power-to-liquid fuels, which demand vast renewable electricity generation and carbon capture infrastructure,” she says.

“Cost is another major hurdle. SAF is currently two to five times more expensive than fossil jet fuel,” she says. Meanwhile, e-SAF, a synthetic jet fuel made from carbon dioxide, water, and renewable electricity, using renewable hydrogen and biogenic carbon dioxide, can be up to 10 times more costly. “Without long-term policy certainty and investment incentives, large-scale production facilities are unlikely to materialise. On top of this, scaling supply is a global challenge, as aviation competes with other hard-to-abate sectors for limited bio-based feedstocks and renewable power.”

There are alternatives to SAF but their development is still somewhat in the future. In the interim, those in the sector are looking at other ways to reduce carbon emissions.

“Alternative sources like hydrogen are promising but they do not yet generate enough energy intensity by volume and weight to sustain long-haul flights and would require a complete overhaul of planes and infrastructure,” says Moriarty.

“There are some parts of aviation that we can decarbonise more easily. At airports, for example, we can switch from diesel ground service equipment and vehicles to electric vehicles today.”

The use of carbon offsets is another form of short-term fix but even that has its limitations. Carbon offsets are a means for those in the aviation sector to invest in projects that reduce carbon in other sectors; they are essentially a form of carbon credit.

It naturally doesn’t address the core issue of reducing carbon directly caused by the sector and Carroll says work is being done to ensure aviation doesn’t lean too heavily on offsets.

“Carbon offsets, when fully verified and credible, can be a useful tool, but they are not the foundation of a long-term climate plan for aviation. At Dublin and Cork airports, we have achieved Airport Carbon Accreditation Level 3+, which means we use verified carbon offsets, but only to the level of a small share of emissions we cannot yet remove directly,” she says.

“Our focus is firmly on cutting emissions at source through renewables, electrification, cleaner fuels and efficient operations.”

She says the work done elsewhere has already shown that real progress can be made in this regard.

“Airports in parts of Scandinavia have already reached net zero. They have been assisted by a historical abundance of ground source energy and decades of well-implemented district heating,” says Carroll.

“With the right policy support and planning, we can get there too. It will take continued investment, research partnerships, and agile decision-making to deliver the required infrastructure.”

Emmet Ryan

Emmet Ryan

Emmet Ryan writes a column with The Irish Times