In December, when Government-formation talks were under way, a Fianna Fáil TD stopped for a chat on the steps of Leinster House.
At that time there was still a possibility that Labour might be willing to make a deal.
This Fianna Fáil TD clearly preferred that option.
“My gut instinct is to be supported by a bloc,” he mused. “Labour is a bloc. The Independents have been trying to create one but the reason they are Independent is they have no whip. I worry about a shock.”
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At that moment, an Independent TD appeared on the plinth before him. He nodded at the TD and remarked quietly. “Some Independents you would not bring lion-hunting with you under any circumstances.”
When Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and his Fine Gael counterpart began formation talks in earnest, one of their primary goals was to create a coalition with a working majority and that would be robust enough to last the full five-year term of the 34th Dáil.
In the end they settled for a deal with the Healy-Rae brothers and a group of nine regional Independents TDs, whose chief negotiator was the controversial Tipperary North TD Michael Lowry. When the deal was brokered, Lowry used a by now infamous phrase, vowing support “through thick and thin”.
As has been shown over the past 30 years, most coalitions have some degree of intrinsic brittleness. In the first week of government in 2020, a Green Party TD (Neasa Hourigan) voted against a Government Bill on residential tenancies, and a newly appointed minister of State (Joe O’Brien) abstained.
Finian McGrath was a left-leaning Independent TD who supported the Fianna Fáil/Green coalition in 2007. When the economy starting hitting the buffers, and austerity measures were introduced, McGrath was frequently baited by the Opposition, who accused him of jettisoning his principles. When a harsh and punitive budget was announced on October 2008, McGrath withdrew his support.
Intriguingly, McGrath, who retired from the Dáil in 2020, has acted as a mentor and adviser to Barry Heneghan, the 27-year-old TD representing Dublin Bay North. Heneghan is one of four Government-supporting Independents who does not have a ministerial role: Lowry, Gillian Toole, and Danny Healy-Rae are the others.
On Wednesday night, Heneghan voted against the Coalition in favour of the Sinn Féin Bill that would have prevented the Central Bank approving a prospectus that allows Israel to sell bonds in the EU.
So did his colleague Toole. Her vote took many people by surprise, as she has not been prominent in that group. The vote was 87 to 75 in favour of the government, still a comfortable margin.
Was this a once-off? Or was it a straw in the wind? Are we seeing the first flecks of rust in the superstructure?
Toole said she had voted that way because of a lack of a detailed briefing from Government.
For his part, Heneghan said: “This is about standing up for international law and basic human rights.”
Heneghan has learned over the past six months that when you are a freshman left-leaning TD supporting a centrist Government, there is no such thing as a shallow end. On the issue of Gaza in particular, he was harangued from the Opposition benches, and faced a social media pile-on when he pledged support for the Occupied Territories Bill but voted with the Government against a Sinn Féin motion on the Bill in March.
McGrath went public to defend his protege, saying Heneghan would not “bottle it” on the Bill when all the technical and legal flaws were resolved. “Unlike many others he is not afraid to make tough decisions and step up,” he said.
Heneghan on Thursday indicated that his inexperience told against him for that vote in March. In a sense the vote this week was him standing on his own two feet.
Heneghan argues his commitment is to support the programme, financial measures, votes of confidence but there are other issues on which he can vote according to his conscience. Is this twin-track approach consistent and durable? He says it is.
One of the five Independents with a ministerial office, Seán Canney, admits that a vote against the Government can cause problems but that this is not on a core issue.
“It’s just that Barry and Gillian had a particular issue with this,” he says. “It’s not the case that they are gone, or anything like that.
He adds a note of caution: “It would not want to happen too often.”
When you speak to Ministers from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael you are immediately struck by a notable sense of fatalism about future Independent defections.
A Fine Gael Minister, speaking privately, points to what could be coming down the tracks, and some really tough decisions that might be necessary.
“If our people are voting against the Government on this, you can imagine how they will vote when it’s something really unpopular,” says the Minister.
A Fianna Fáil Minister, who does not wish to be named, says it is inevitable that the Government will shed numbers. “It does not take a genius to figure out that the TDs who do not have ministerial gigs will be the flakiest,” he says.
That said, nobody in Government is unduly concerned. None can foresee the current majority of 17 falling to single figures, even if a lion-hunting expedition becomes necessary.
