In Eoghan Murphy’s book, released last year, the former minister for housing writes about his first visit to the cabinet room: “[It] was that unknowable, unreachable, often-dreamed-about thing. The site of the most important, private and secret deliberations of the Government of Ireland. The Holy of Holies.”

This is political hallowed ground for those hoping to make the leap – or keep their seat. But who is likely to end up where?

Fianna Fáil

Darragh O’Brien, Age: 50

• Arguments for: Continuity in housing, where shifting policy can cause headaches. Would be recognition for a safe Dublin seat. Will cross 20 years in the Oireachtas during this term and is unlikely to be dropped, but the slimmest chance he could be shuffled.
• Arguments against: Continuity in housing, where affordability and access remain dire problems the government has yet to solve.
• Possible portfolios: Housing, Justice.

James Browne, Age: 49

• Arguments for: Micheál Martin is known to appreciate his work on gambling reform. Low drama. Helmed the Fianna Fáil manifesto. On the negotiating team for government.
• Arguments against: If Mary Butler is promoted, it might be hard to make the case for two senior ministers in the southeast.
• Possible portfolios: Justice, chief whip.

Mary Butler, Age: 58

• Arguments for: Now a three-term TD, her experience in the older persons and mental health briefs as a minister of State would stand to her if given responsibility at a senior level for disabilities.
• Arguments against: Similarly to Browne, seats for both might over-allocate to the southeast.
• Possible portfolios: Children (with disabilities foregrounded as well).

Thomas Byrne, Age: 47

• Arguments for: Served a full term as a minister of State. Was minister for European Affairs for Martin – usually an indication of an upward trajectory. Prominent in sport under Catherine Martin as his senior Minister.
• Arguments against: Failed to land a second seat in Meath East for Fianna Fáil. Others seen as being ahead of him.
• Possible portfolio: Higher Education; Arts, Media and Sport.

Jim O’Callaghan, Age: 57

• Arguments for: Chair of Oireachtas justice committee (albeit briefly), party spokesman on subject, to the forefront of an election campaign that sought to focus on law and order, and a senior counsel – his CV for the justice portfolio is long. Among those who championed transport police.
• Arguments against: Hardly a Martin loyalist and once seen as a plotter against the leader. Snubbed Martin’s offer of a minister of State role in last Dáil. Would three Dublin ministers be too many?
• Possible portfolios: Justice, Attorney General.

Dara Calleary, Age: 51

• Arguments for: Seniority, longevity, popularity in the party. Cabinet experience, albeit brief. Served his time after the Golfgate scandal and later appointment as a minister of State indicated his period of purgatory had expired.
• Arguments against: He is a western TD, but that was the case in 2020 when Martin passed him over for a cabinet job.
• Possible portfolios: Transport and Environment, chief whip.

Charlie McConalogue, Age: 47

• Arguments for: An unpretentious Minister of the variety favoured by Martin, held his seat despite the mica controversy and running mate Pat ‘the Cope’ Gallagher taking a Dáil seat.
• Arguments against: Disappointed some in the farming sector with the nitrates derogation and the Mercosur trade deal seen as unfinished business.
• Possible portfolios: Higher Education, Transport and Environment.

Timmy Dooley, Age: 55

• Arguments for: From the west, but is not alone in that. Longevity of service. Part of a team that delivered two Fianna Fáil seats in Clare. Secured a big vote to win back his seat and top the poll.
• Arguments against: Has to leapfrog a few people; was caught up in the 2019 Votegate controversy.
• Possible portfolios: Chief whip, Transport and Environment.

Norma Foley, Age: 54

• Arguments for: An iffy start during the Covid-19 pandemic but a firm Martin favourite. Provides a counterweight to the Healy-Rae machine and brought in her running mate. Likely one of two female Fianna Fáil ministers.
• Arguments against: Hit a small budget landmine with phone pouches. Seen by some as slow to move on banning phones in schools, a policy favoured by Martin.
• Possible portfolios: Social Protection and Rural Affairs, Higher Education.

James Lawless, Age: 48

• Arguments for: Commuter belt TD. Brought in a running mate and topped the poll. Jumped on the pre-Christmas freight crisis. Negotiator for Fianna Fáil in government formation talks.
• Arguments against: Only recently a junior minister. Martin was in no rush to promote him first time.
• Possible portfolios: Transport and Environment, chief whip.

Fine Gael

Peter Burke, Age: 42

• Arguments in favour: A Harris promotion to cabinet. Background as a chartered accountant and five years as a minister, junior or senior. Midlands box ticked.
• Arguments against: Michael O’Leary launching his campaign was ground zero for Fine Gael’s limp general election campaign.
• Possible portfolios: Enterprise, Education.

Jennifer Carroll MacNeill, Age: 44

• Arguments in favour: A lot of policy experience. On the cabinet shortlist for years. Alongside McEntee would give Harris two women at cabinet. Big on defence and security, expected to take up more oxygen in this Dáil.
• Arguments against: If it boils down to her or Naughten, South Dublin may lose out to the west.
• Possible portfolios: Health, super junior.

Alan Dillon, Age: 42

• Arguments in favour: Geography. As a former captain of Mayo football team, profile. Retained two seats in Mayo. Has momentum.
• Arguments against: Seniority. Doesn’t need cabinet spot to hold his seat.
• Possible portfolios: Super junior, Agriculture, Enterprise.

Patrick O’Donovan, Age: 47

• Arguments in favour: Like Burke, a recent Harris appointee. A rural TD happy to turn over the Greens, he is likely to gel with the Independents. Western(ish) base is in his favour.
• Arguments against: Allegedly ran a “sting” operation against Harris once. There was nothing inevitable about his ascent to cabinet.
• Possible portfolios: Education; Arts, Media and Sport.

Helen McEntee, Meath East, Minister for Justice, Age: 38

• Arguments in favour: Deputy leader. Led Fine Gael negotiating team. Cabinet veteran at only 38, battle hardened after her time in justice.
• Arguments against: Those battles have also left their mark. Maligned as “too woke” by some. Didn’t bring in a running mate in a commuter county where there was an extra seat.
• Possible portfolios: Enterprise; Education; Arts, Media and Sport, Agriculture.

Martin Heydon, Age: 46

• Arguments in favour: Has significant ministerial miles on the clock. Will be hoping his five years as a junior in agriculture propels him upwards. Ticks commuter and rural boxes.
• Arguments against: With McEntee and Harris, the greater Dublin area is not crying out for Fine Gael faces at cabinet.
• Possible portfolios: Agriculture, super junior.

Hildegarde Naughton, Age: 47

• Arguments for: Worked in four departments as a minister of State and as chief whip and spent five years sitting at cabinet in those roles. One of the two Fine Gael women with a strong chance of promotion.
• Arguments against: With O’Donovan likely to be retained, Harris may see his obligation to the west as fulfilled. Two Galway super juniors already (from the Independents).
• Possible portfolios: Super junior; Education; Arts, Media and Sport.

Neale Richmond, Age: 41

• Arguments for: If Carroll MacNeill doesn’t make the cut, there’s only one nailed-on Fine Gael cabinet minister from Dublin. Retained a second seat in Rathdown – a vital hold.
• Arguments against: Despite prominence as a senator and backbencher, only two years as a minister of State. May find no route this time.
• Possible portfolios: Super junior.

(The appointments of Jack Chambers and Paschal Donohoe are taken as read)

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