Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are likely to seek a coalition deal with both Labour and the Social Democrats in the coming weeks, according to senior figures in the government parties.
As the counting of votes in general election 2024 will continue at count centres around the country this morning, seat projections suggest that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil could have a combined seat total in the mid-80s in the new Dáil – enough to ensure that they will form the basis of the next government, but not enough to achieve a majority on their own.
A majority in the new Dáil will require 88 seats.
Senior figures in both parties expect that they will approach both the Social Democrats and Labour Party with a view to one – or both – joining a new government.
They believe that a centre-left party would be preferable to a group of Independents, both in terms of the overall profile of the government and also for the longer-term stability of any new coalition.
There is preference in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for an agreement with Labour, though some figures in both parties are sceptical that the Social Democrats will seriously engage with efforts to form a coalition.
“Labour is the only viable third leg [of a coalition],” said one senior figure. “We know them and we respect them.”
But others believe that the Social Democrats – whose candidates have repeatedly said that they want to be in government – can be persuaded to join a coalition.
At the RDS on Saturday Labour leader Ivana Bacik reiterated she wanted to agree a left-wing bloc to negotiate a programme for government. She said left-wing parties should not be deterred by the experience of the Greens, who look set to lose almost all of their 12 TDs.
“It’s very easy for parties on the left to look at what has happened to the Greens and say: ‘We’re not going into government,’” she said. “But that is not us. We are serious about delivering change and we want to chart a pathway to do it.
“As I said the first thing, I will do is speak to other parties and groups that share our vision and our values. Explicitly, I mean the Green Party and the Social Democrats. They are the first people we speak to,” Ms Bacik said.
“Because what we have learned is that we must have a critical mass of numbers to deliver on the vision of change that we have. We want to see a left bloc, a common platform come together to deliver on the change we want, so the first people I will talk to are the leaders of the Greens and Social Democrats.”
The deputy leader of the Social Democrats, Cian O’Callaghan, was more reserved.
“We certainly intend talking to the Labour Party and other parties over the coming days and weeks,” he said. “That’s our intention. Where those discussions go remains to be seen.”
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Join The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
- Listen to our Inside Politics podcast for the best political chat and analysis
- Sign up to our Inside Politics newsletter to get the behind-the-scenes take direct to your inbox
