Is a proposed alliance of left-wing parties aimed at forming a post-election negotiating bloc dead in the water?
It is from Fine Gael’s point of view.
Such an alliance has been mooted most prominently in this general election campaign by Labour leader Ivana Bacik, though the Green Party’s Roderic O’Gorman has made similar noises in the past.
In our lead story today Taoiseach Simon Harris rejects the idea saying: “I don’t think anyone wants to see a coalition with four, five or six parties in it”.
He made the remarks during an Inside Politics podcast with Pat Leahy and Hugh Linehan in response to an ‘Ask Me Anything’ question submitted by a listener.
“I think that wouldn’t be good at this moment in time. I think we need a stable government,” he continued. “I’m currently leading and managing a three-party coalition. We’ve managed to deliver five budgets ... but you start adding in four and five parties, I think that’s not very stable.”
The proposal for an alliance of involving Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats is undermined by the belief among many political commentators that Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil are in pole position to return to government.
While not a single vote has been cast, the opinion polls would suggest they would not need three parties to join them to form a coalition – and might even get away with corralling some Independent TDs.
While Sinn Féin could potentially lead a more left of centre government, it would need to have a spectacular election result in order to have the number of TDs necessary to be able to contemplate going into coalition with the smaller parties.
On one level it makes sense for the centre left parties to seek to negotiate entry into government from a “position of critical mass”, as Bacik puts it in a separate interview in The Irish Times today. But the question that has been prompted by the proposed alliance all along is – wouldn’t it also make sense for the larger parties to seek to pick off smaller centre-left parties as possible coalition partners rather than negotiate with a bloc?
Bacik insists Labour is “absolutely not about going into government to make up numbers”. She said it has “huge differences” with the three biggest parties, and that the pathway to deliver change is through “a common negotiating bloc with others who share our vision and our values”.
Much will depend on the respective strengths of Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin after polling day, which is just a week away now. After that, we will see whether a centre-left alliance could play a key role in government formation talks.
For now, the main impact the proposal may have is to encourage transfers between Labour, the Greens and the Social Democrats, a trend already seen in June’s European elections.
More of the Fine Gael leader’s answers to the ‘Ask Me Anything’ questions sent in by our listeners can be found here.
Campaign playbook
Independent Ireland – the party which includes outgoing TDs Michael Collins, Richard O’Donoghue and Michael Fitzmaurice – is to unveil its manifesto today. They’re hailing it as a “critical step forward in our mission to tackle the key issues facing Irish society”.
Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is to be joined by other senior party candidates for a press conference outlining a plan for Irish unity “that would drive constitutional, legislative and political change”.
Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue is to outline Fianna Fáil’s “vision for agriculture, fisheries and rural Ireland”.
Fine Gael is to set out its plan to invest in Dublin and other cities and towns “to ensure they are vibrant and attractive destinations for living, working, business and tourism”.
Green Party leader Roderic O’Gorman is to announce his party’s basic income for carers commitment as well as other cost-of-living measures.
Labour’s Ged Nash and Maire Sherlock are to outline a plan “to end low pay and give employees more power at work”.
The Social Democrats are unveiling their “youth manifesto”.
Best Reads
Kitty Holland and Sarah Burns are on the campaign trail with councillors Gavin Pepper and Philip Sutcliffe – who both reject far-right and anti-immigration labels.
Conor Gallagher has been looking at how less ‘heat’ in the general election campaign may lower the chances of anti-immigration candidates being successful.
Marie O’Halloran is on canvasses in the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency with Fianna Fáil Senator Malcolm Byrne and Independent councillor Peir Leonard.
Mark Hennessy meets the voters at Monaghan’s Men’ Shed.
McDonald has called on Paschal Donohoe to ‘clarify’ the details around a 2022 dinner meeting he had with Ryanair’s Michael O’Leary.
On the opinion pages Justine McCarthy has a piece headlined ‘Forget politicians’ pre-election promises – here’s my ten-point manifesto’. Her wish list includes no more free Dáil parking and immunity for employees who refuse to handle Israeli goods.
Gerard Howlin says false election promises are being made to Ireland’s under-40s.
What the papers say
The Irish Independent leads with a story about mortgage customers being overcharged interest on loans.
The Irish Examiner’s main story is about a coroner calling for barriers to be erected to stop people from driving over Cork City’s quay walls.
The Irish Daily Mail reports on Taoiseach Simon Harris’s warning about a transatlantic trade shock.
The Sun’s main story is headlined “Bert Alert” in reference Storm Bert which is due to hit this weekend the Star took the opportunity to reuse the famous picture of former Fianna Fáil Taoiseach Bertie Ahern standing in flood water.
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