There was a note of defiance at the Sinn Féin ardfheis this weekend that chafed against the narrative that the party is on the decline.
Matt Carthy, who can always be relied upon to barnstorm the hall, set the tone during his exhortation to delegates in Athlone.
“Fine Gael think that they are going to waltz back into government propped up by Fianna Fáil and Independents,” the Cavan–Monaghan TD told them.
“They say we are on the ropes. I can tell you we are at our strongest when our backs are against the wall.”
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All the indications in recent months bear the impression the party’s back is indeed against the wall – poor local elections, so-so European elections and a precipitous drop over 2024 in opinion polls.
On the backbenches of the Government parties, TDs have for many weeks been calling on Simon Harris to call the election as soon as possible. The thinking has been the sooner an election is called, the less time Sinn Féin has to regroup like it did in 2020.
Lesson number one in politics is that nothing stands still. Timing is still important. Despite the Government’s big buoyancy over recent months, if the Taoiseach had called an election last week, the Coalition parties would have just come out of a bruising first week of the campaign – defending a wanton waste of public money over a bicycle shed, a security hut and, most significantly, the €2 billion-plus behemoth that is the national children’s hospital.
So where is Sinn Féin at this moment in time? It is doing somewhat better than its poor support levels in June but it has not recovered the heady levels of support it was enjoying this time last year.
There was always a disconnect between the party leadership’s liberal stance on immigration and that of a cohort of its supporters that has voiced concerns about the number of immigrants coming to Ireland. That tension has built over time.
If the predominant issue in the election is immigration, the party could be in trouble. It has readjusted its message in a comparatively subtle manner since the summer, with a message that its critics have decried as speaking out of both sides of its mouth.
Mary Lou McDonald’s keynote address set it out. On the one hand, she said, racism is repulsive and must be opposed.
However, she continued: “IPAS [International Protection Accommodation Services] centres must not be located in working class communities struggling to survive.” It seems party policy affords a veto to most communities in the country, save the richest neighbourhoods in the capital.
In any instance, its approach has been to pivot the debate back to Sinn Féin’s strongest cards: housing, health and the cost of living. It is unveiling two major policy papers – one on housing and the other on health – that will be published immediately after the budget. It has also set out clear demarcation lines with the Government: the abolition of USC for those earning €45,000 or under, the abolition of student fees, and €10-a-day childcare.
There was also the unflagged announcement by McDonald in her speech that the party will remove the means test for carers if in government. It could cost anything between €400 million and €2 billion annually, depending on which estimate you believe.
Another evident theme in McDonald’s speech was the need for change after Fine Gael being in government for 14 years.
It goes without saying that Irish unification and Palestine featured very heavily throughout the day, with numerous contributors condemning Israel for the carnage in Gaza and Lebanon.
In her speech, McDonald also disclosed the party would establish a new Minister of State for Reunification in the Taoiseach’s office. That is hardly a surprise.
Is Sinn Féin back? A senior source said there was a feeling in the party that “it is like late 2019 again, that we have people’s ear”.
The source said the party’s private polling, and its focus groups, showed it performing “consistently higher than other polls”. It was also pointed out that some of its supporters did not vote in the summer elections but will do so this time.
The public polling suggests Sinn Féin will struggle to regain the lost ground. Plus Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will transfer heavily to each other unlike in 2020.
Still, there’s defiance there, and there was also a bit of buoyancy among delegates this weekend.
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