The decision has been coming for weeks, surrounded by rumour and counter-rumour. Yes, the British government would pay the money to build Casement Park. Definitely, no questions. Then, no, they would not.
On Friday, Taoiseach Simon Harris and Tánaiste Micheál Martin and ministers met in Dublin Castle with Northern Ireland’s First Minister Michelle O’Neill, Deputy First Minister Emma Little-Pengelly and Stormont colleagues.
If anyone knew anything about London’s decision to abandon plans to fund, together with the GAA and the Irish Government, the redevelopment of the west Belfast stadium, then they were not letting on.
Questioned, Harris said he had spoken with British prime minister Sir Kier Starmer in Farmleigh about the project when they met in Dublin a week ago, but wanted to respect the fact that Starmer has “a huge array of issues” on his desk.
Author Martin Waddell: ‘When I got blown up, I was no longer fit to write. I lost several years’
Sinn Féin pledges unity referendums can happen by 2030
‘No mercy’ shown by former Belfast Christian Brother to abuse victims, judge tells court
Farmers have a point - if only they could make it more reasonably
“The prime minister didn’t give me an indication of a deadline in terms of when the British government would be able to make a decision, but he did certainly give me a clear understanding that he was aware of timing being important,” said Harris.
In truth, few in Dublin will find the decision surprising: there have been rumours for months that London hoped Uefa would be the ones to pull the plug by excluding Casement from the list of stadiums for the 2028 European football championship because it could not be built in time.
The derelict GAA ground had been earmarked to host five matches at Euro 2028, which will be jointly hosted by Britain and Ireland.
Under Leo Varadkar, Dublin had offered €50 million under the Shared Island initiative to help the redevelopment, but construction costs rose from the original £125 million estimate to nearly £400 million – with no more clarity about why that has happened in Belfast than with public infrastructure projects anywhere else.
The timing of the decision by No 10 Downing Street will be seen in Northern Ireland as important, since it comes just a day after London announced that it was finally accepting a public inquiry into the 1989 killing of Belfast solicitor Pat Finucane.
Of course, the timing could be entirely accidental, but that will not be believed in a place where, even 25 years on, good news for one side of the sectarian divide must always come with something on the negative side.
The Democratic Unionist Party hated the idea, so, too, the more hardline Traditional Unionist Voice led by Jim Allister, pointing to the many gaps in Stormont’s public spending numbers. In truth, they would have hated it, anyway.
Under Doug Beattie, the Ulster Unionists believed it should be redeveloped – though, not entirely unreasonably, he believed the GAA should pay more than £15 million for a new stadium that they would own.
Some objections were deeply sectarian. Some, however, were not. The stadium plans were not universally welcomed by many of those living around it. Streets are cramped. Parking is at a premium. Crowded match days were always a pain.
In addition, there were better places for Northern Ireland to have a world-class stadium – the bustling Titanic Quarter along Belfast Lough, or on the much-disputed lands that were home to the Maze Prison, 16km south of Belfast.
For now, the stadium that has lain idle for decades will remain so for years more. The 2028 Euros offered a target to bring it back to life. Without that target, a difficult job for the GAA becomes even more difficult.
- Listen to our Inside Politics Podcast for the latest analysis and chat
- Sign up for push alerts and have the best news, analysis and comment delivered directly to your phone
- Find The Irish Times on WhatsApp and stay up to date
