Hello and welcome to an unusual Inside Politics digest. Unusual in so far as the Dáil term has ended. But the reason behind it is the extraordinary events in the US at the weekend. Late on Saturday night in Ireland, the shocking news came through of an assassination attempt on Donald Trump, the former president and Republican Party candidate.
There’s an old, and famous, saying from the American War of Independence, the “shot heard round the world”.
It refers to the opening shot that set off the battles of Lexington and Concord in 1775 which eventually led to independence and the foundation of the United States.
There are some remarkable photographs. One actually shows a bullet just before it hits Trump – who was lucky to survive with no more than a superficial cut on his ear . The other shows him raising his fist as he leaves the stage, his face covered in blood, a look of almost angry defiance on his face. The video of the moment shows his secret service detail trying to huddle him off the stage at the rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. He told them to stop for a moment before raising his arm in the air. It showed his instinct and political intuition on how to use that moment. The image unmistakably suggested: bloody but unbowed.
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The US is a violent society. In a society such as ours where guns are rare, the homicide rate from firearms is galling. Mass shootings are an almost commonplace occurrence. So are assassinations and violence against politicians. Four of the US presidents have been assassinated and there have been attempts on a number of others – the last was Ronald Reagan in 1980. When it does happen it is shocking but given the culture in the US we should not really be shocked.
There is no doubt that it dominated the coverage of virtually every media outlet today. Here is our latest update on developments.
The details of the 20-year-old shooter, Thomas Matthew Crooks of Bethel Park, Pennsylvania remain scant and sketchy. There are conflicting reports of his involvement with both the Democratic Party and Republican Party. As of now, there is no evidence of wider plot or conspiracy.
There are also serious questions about the security operation for the former president, which allowed a would-be-assassin to get such a clear sight of Trump on the stage.
There are huge implications politically. Trump heads to the Republican Party Convention in Milwaukee tonight in an ebullient mod.
“The speech I was going to give on Thursday was going to be a humdinger,” he said. “Had this not happened, this would’ve been one of the most incredible speeches. Honestly, it’s going to be a whole different speech now.
“It is a chance to bring the country together. I was given that chance.”
On Sunday, US president Joe Biden addressed the nation after having telephoned Trump to express his solidarity. In his initial reaction, he described the shooting as “sick” but gave a more considered response in a televised address. He said that politics needed to take a step back.
“The political rhetoric in this country has gotten very heated. It’s time to cool it down,” he said. “We all have a responsibility to do this.”
He also said: “There is no place in America for this kind of violence, for any violence ever. Period. No exceptions. We can’t allow this violence to be normalised.”
There are profound political implications. There is no doubt that Trump will get a boost in the opinion ratings from having survived the attack and his robust response. His speech in Milwaukee tonight will be keenly anticipated and could open up a substantialover Biden. Even though only three years younger than his presidential rival, there is a perception among the public that there is a bigger gap in vitality and energy.
If Trump gets a fillip, it will increase the pressure on Biden to step aside.
It feels as if this is a defining moment not just in the campaign race, but in American politics.
Seanad Éireann still sitting
The Dáil rose on Thursday last week but no such luck of the Upper House. They are back for three days this week, primarily to debate two pieces of legislation: the Planning and Development Bill 2023 as well as the Courts, Civil Law, Criminal Law Bill 2024.
The Planning Bill is a mammoth piece of legislation. With 590 sections and 25 parts, it has been the subject of months of debate in committee. One of its intentions is to streamline the planning process by increasing the threshold required before submissions are made, particularly to the courts.
It was subject to prolonged debate in the Dáil and at committee over several months, before being finally guillotined with more than 500 amendments still to be heard.
It’s not the end of it this week. If it passes through all stages in the Seanad, it will have to go back to the Dáil again to be formally passed. That is now likely to take place in September.
It’s the same for the Courts Bill. The salient section of this includes measures to toughen up the laws on immigration. One of the sections addresses a court case from last March which ruled that the United Kingdom could not be deemed a safe third country because of its policy on transferring asylum seekers to Rwanda. That seems moot now, given that Keir Starmer’s Labour government has confirmed it will scrap that proposals.
Council of State
The President Michael D Higgins will convene a meeting of the Council of State at 2.30pm today to discuss the Defence (Amendment) Bill 2024.
It is the fourth time during Higgins’s 13 years in office that the council has been convened.
The council is composed of former presidents and taoisigh, the Ceann Comhairle, the highest judges in the land, the Attorney General, as well as a number of people the President himself has appointed to council.
The role of the council in such meetings is to give the President advice on the question of referring the Bill to the Supreme Court to test its constitutionality. The President will make the decision alone. If the Bill is referred, and the Supreme Court affirms its constitutionality, it cannot be challenged on constitutional grounds in the courts.
This Bill provides for a new external oversight body for the Armed Forces. It will also allow the groups which represent different ranks to be affiliated to trade unions. There is also a provision which sets out rules on public criticism of the Defence Forces by serving members. This is what might have raised a question for the President.
Conor Gallagher has a really good question-and-answer piece explaining the background.
Best Reads
An excellent, provocative, opinion piece from Fintan O’Toole teasing out the issues arising from the failed assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Washington Correspondent Keith Duggan reports as America looks into the abyss after a shocking weekend.
Miriam Lord handed out her end-of-term Dáil awards at the weekend.
The Green Party elected Senator Róisín Garvey as its new deputy leader on Sunday.
Playbook
Other than the Seanad sitting until Wednesday, the Joint Committee on the Implementation of the Good Friday Agreement is launching a report tomorrow. Perspectives on Constitutional Change: Finance and Economics.
A sub-committee on European Affairs is meeting the Minister of State in this area, Jennifer Carroll MacNeill on Wednesday.
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