Asked to sum up Ireland South, the five-seat vast constituency stretching from Bray to west Cork and from the Cliffs of Moher to Hook Head, one weary campaigner this week pithily summed it up: “Too big.”
The range of issues candidates face is as broad as the constituency is large, taking in agriculture, climate, migration, health, housing and the cost of living, as well as a plethora of parochial issues spanning traffic calming in Cork city to Limerick’s council paying to heat a closed municipal swimming pool.
All politics is local, even when it’s European.
Agriculture was to the fore for Independent TD Michael McNamara as he canvassed the Shanagolden national school musical in the village’s parish hall nestled in the hills overlooking Foynes. On a bright and breezy May evening, the Clare TD outlined how farmers are “feeling under pressure and unfairly targeted”, and that the emphasis for carbon cutting is “almost solely on farming”, arguing that the national herd does not need to be cut and savings should rather come from areas such as transport.
In Liam O’Shea’s newsagent’s in Freshford, Co Kilkenny, immigration is the very first issue raised with Fianna Fáil candidate Cynthia Ní Murchu, the former RTÉ broadcaster. Local Michael Cantwell levels a lengthy criticism of Government migration policy, saying many coming here are “economic migrants”, arguing that the response from the State is to “call people like me far right”. After a lengthy but polite debate, Ní Murchu moves on; Cantwell tells The Irish Times he will still consider voting for her.
Ireland South looks like delivering a seat for each of the three large parties, with an unpredictable scrap between their sweeper candidates, smaller parties and Independents for the final two.
In Cork city, Fine Gael’s John Mullins, former Bord Gáis chief executive, works his way through a knot of small businesses, emphasising both Government grants and his local credentials in O’Shea’s Pharmacy. “This is where I picked up my inhalers when Dr Dorgan was upstairs,” he reminisces, chatting about flood protections and planning frustrations as he is shown the slurry pump installed by the business to discharge water.
Despite his executive background, Mullins says big banks need to step up to address the housing crisis and begin lending to small developers at scale. While he is a city boy, Mullins is aware of the largely rural character of the vast constituency, warning against the “demonisation of agriculture” and the “hollowing out of rural Ireland”.
Down the hill on Pope’s Quay, outside Myo’s coffee shop where a Palestinian flag hangs indoors, Lorna Bogue believes voters are drifting away from the political process. The former Green councillor, now leader of eco-socialist party Rabharta, says climate politics as practised by her former party “has turned toxic”, with a brand of “eco-austerity” summed up by the bottle deposit return scheme. She is finding the electorate “in a different mood than I’ve ever encountered them”.
“It’s not apathy ... they’re actively disengaging from the political system as a whole,” she says, increasing the chances of unpredictable and volatile outcomes.
[ European candidates on centre-left test the temperature on Dublin’s doorstepsOpens in new window ]
Against this backdrop, tensions over migration have also raised the profile of some candidates. Derek Blighe, president of the Ireland First party, who has been described in the Dáil as a far-right agitator, is among a group sitting polling about 4 per cent. He has travelled the country organising protests against asylum-seeker and refugee accommodation.
Canvassing Fermoy town centre, several shoppers refuse his literature without comment, but several others tell him he will “definitely” get their vote.
He rejects the label “far right” and says genuine refugees should be accepted, but his description of immigration is laden with ethnonationalist tropes: he says Ireland needs to be kept “safe”, peppering his criticism with claims about immigrants.
Susan Doyle, Social Democrats candidate and practising solicitor, argues that social issues such as mental health, disability rights and housing have been forgotten in the current debate.
“The EU is a social and economic bloc, and it’s done a lot socially for workers’ rights, gender equality and disability rights,” she says, outlining her caution about a European shift towards security policy.
She sees a move to the right within Europe, describing it as “very worrying”.
“A lot of those voices are angry voices, not thinking about the social issues that are the reason people are getting upset and a little disillusioned with politics,” she said.
“They want to be treated fairly and they want housing and public-health systems that work.”
One seat for each of the large parties looks a safe bet but thereafter it’ll be a scramble and gets very tricky to predict.
A second seat could, in reality, go to any of them; on a strong day for the Government, either John Mullins or Ní Murchú, but the former RTÉ star may shade it in those circumstances based on name recognition alone. She was polling well at the start of the campaign.
Watch for some of her running mate’s preferences going to Mullins as a fellow Corkman though.
One Independent seat looks likely and if the tide is out for sitting Independent MEP Mick Wallace it could flow the way of Michael McNamara on the far side of the constituency. A second one could break for any of a clatter of Independents, or a smaller party.
Candidates and prediction
Prediction: two Fianna Fáil (Kelleher & Ní Murchu), one Fine Gael (Kelly), one Sinn Féin (Funchion) and one Independent (McNamara)
