The Electoral Commission’s constituency review has been described as “a battle between maths and geography” by its chief executive Art O’Leary.
Battles have winners and losers and the outcome of the review is no different in terms of its implications for political parties and individual politicians.
Here’s a round-up of the good and bad news for Ireland’s political classes.
Winners
Sinn Féin
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The party is on course to make considerable gains on its 2020 general election result when it made a serious blunder by not running enough candidates. It should be on course to take at least one seat in almost all constituencies and it will be in the running for multiple seats in many. While it faces challenges in identifying enough candidates to capitalise on its current high level of support in the opinion polls it should be well placed to fight for many of the 14 extra seats to be added to the Dáil. In some places it could take as many as three seats – something that is certainly a strong prospect in Dublin Mid-West, which has gained a TD to become a five-seater. Sitting TDs Eoin Ó Broin and Mark Ward may well bring a running mate over the line there. Sinn Féin was in the driving seat before the constituency review. The extra seats may see it pick up some speed.
Josepha Madigan and Neale Richmond
Dublin Rathdown is gaining an extra seat with the help of population shifts from Foxrock and other areas of the adjoining Dún Laoghaire. The extra 12,400 people from the southside’s leafy suburbs should bolster the support base for Fine Gael Ministers of State Josepha Madigan and Neale Richmond. Without the extra seat they would have faced a dogfight in a constituency that includes Green Party Minister Catherine Martin. She will breathe more easily too.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Micheál Martin
Both the Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil leaders saw their respective constituencies – Dublin West and Cork South Central – gain an extra seat for the next election, automatically making their own paths to re-election that bit easier. Aside from that the larger parties are likely to benefit from the increase in the number of three-seat constituencies and the added 14 TDs will help incumbents – of which many will be from Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil – hang on to their seats. The review will not lead to a massive improvement in the fortunes of the old Civil War parties but broadly, on first glance, it does not appear to hurt them either, which counts as a win.
Candidates in the new Wicklow-Wexford constituency
The results of the review presents something of an open goal for prospective candidates in the new three-seat constituency spanning south Wicklow and north Wexford. There are no sitting TDs based in the area. One potential beneficiary is Gorey-based Fianna Fáil senator Malcolm Byrne. He is one obvious candidate in the area that now has three free seats up for grabs.
Losers
Sitting TDs in the current Wicklow constituency
All five sitting TDs in Wicklow are based in the northeast of the county and the now looking at a new four-seat constituency of death. Sinn Féin’s John Brady should be safe enough but will be hard pressed to get a running mate over the line. Minister for Higher Education Simon Harris of Fine Gael should also survive but will miss the votes he could have gleaned from the south of the county. Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly will rue the loss of Fianna Fáil voters in the more rural parts of Wicklow. Social Democrats TD Jennifer Whitmore and Green Party TD Steven Matthews also face a much harder path to re-election.
Smaller parties
An increase in the number of three-seater constituencies from nine to 13 will hit smaller parties such as the Greens, Labour and Social Democrats. The commission’s terms of reference did not permit it to create six-seat constituencies that generally allow for a broader allocation of seats. Green Party politicians in new three-seaters include Minister of State Joe O’Brien in Dublin Fingal West, who will face a battle to retain his seat and another Minister of State, Senator Pippa Hackett, who would have slim chance of getting elected in the new Offaly constituency.
TDs losing support bases
Labour Cork East TD Seán Sherlock appears, initially at least, to be worst hit by a loss of a local support base. He is considering changing constituency for the next election as the review shifts the town of Mallow to Cork North-Central. He says he’s still “assessing what is a seismic shift in the political landscape”. While he says it is too early to comment on his future, “Mallow is my hometown so one way or another Mallow is where I’m staying.”
Fine Gael Sligo-Leitrim TD Frank Feighan reckons the guts of 1,200 votes he got in north Roscommon are gone now that it has been moved to a different constituency, though Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin will loses some too. Feighan moved from his native Roscommon to Sligo town a decade ago.
Other TDs believed to be losing chunks of votes include Fine Gael’s Jennifer Carroll MacNeill in Dún Laoghaire with Foxrock being moved to Dublin Rathdown and Kildare South Independent TD Cathal Berry who won support in Portarlington which is to go back to the Laois constituency.
