It was one of those “Read my lips” days in Irish politics yesterday, an Irish Government pledging something that it might have difficulty guaranteeing.
A number of senior political leaders, including Taoiseach Micheál Martin and Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, categorically ruled out any interim measures to combat the cost of living for people between now and the budget.
Both, therefore, contradicted Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, who had not fully ruled out something being done before October when interviewed before the weekend.
So, who was right? Did the Tánaiste, on Friday, exercise better judgement in allowing for the global political volatility that has seen inflation and prices skyrocket and where everything seems to change on a daily basis? Or was he creating a hostage to fortune, stating a possibility that would become a certainty once he stated it?
It recalled George Bush senior’s infamous pledge at the Republican Convention in 1988: “Read my lips, no more taxes.”
The phrase helped elect him as president over his Democratic rival Michael Dukakis. So weak were US finances at the time that he could not deliver on his promise and it paved the way for Bill Clinton to succeed him in 1992.
As Jennifer Bray and Cormac McQuinn report, the way the Government is getting around public expectation of another intervention – a mini-budget – is by stating they are holding hard until the October budget. There is a sweetener though. They promise the budget’s packages to help people make ends meet amid spiralling prices – especially with fuel – will be more generous this year, and some of it will be implemented immediately and not at the beginning of 2023, as is usual.
As they report: “The three Government party leaders met on Monday night to discuss the cost-of-living crisis and they were given a presentation by Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Michael McGrath in advance of the publication of the Government’s summer economic statement.
“Sources said the budgetary package for next year would far exceed what was provided last year, especially given the challenges posed by housing Ukrainian refugees and addressing high inflation. The social welfare package in Budget 2022 saw 1.4 million people receive a €5-per-week increase in payments and sources say this year’s package could see higher increases.”
Contact Tracing
What do you do with your emergency team when the emergency begins to subside? Jack Horgan-Jones and Jennifer Bray report on the fate that has befallen contact tracing teams throughout the country. The teams were hugely ramped up during the Covid pandemic but have begun to be scaled down now that the situation has improved.
But some now claim they have been “thrown on the scrapheap”, with those in clinical positions being offered the choice of a lesser position in another area, or their contracts being brought to an end.
They say this is happening amid a new Covid-19 wave. If the teams are dispersed they warn it could threaten the State’s ability to respond if there is a major resurgence of the disease.
My colleagues write: “In a reply to a parliamentary question from Independent TD for Galway East Seán Canney last Friday, HSE head of testing and tracing Damien McCallion said the health service will ‘require significantly less contact tracing staff after’ June 30th due to a reduction in demand over recent months. It outlined how an exercise was carried out to inform the future model for tracing, which resulted in a decision to stop the function in Limerick and Galway.”
Some tracing teams are working in other departments already, on Ukraine issues or the passport backlog. They have been brought in primarily to speed up the process of vetting those who have pledged shared accommodation. The offers of shared rooms have not happened at scale because of longs delays in getting those who make the pledges vetted.
Best Reads
In an analysis piece, Cormac McQuinn writes that budget season (and speculation!) has started very early and that the swiftness of implementation of key measures in October will be the key politically.
This video from the New York Times is the result of months of painstaking analysis of the events surrounding the storming of the Capitol by Donald Trump supporters on January 6th, 2021. Irish journalist Malachi Browne is the senior producer.
Next is a great exploration from Olivia Kelly and Kathleen Harris on the impact that proposed 16-story apartment blocks will have on the suburb of Dundrum.
Fintan O’Toole accuses Government of political cowardice in not supporting a measure, opposed by big pharma, that would have allowed easier (cheaper) access to Covid-19 vaccinations in the poorest parts of the world.
Playbook
There is a Cabinet meeting this morning. The big event later this week is the EU Summit in Brussels where leaders will discuss fast-track EU candidate status for Ukraine and Moldova, amid opposition from some countries including Portugal and Holland.
Former taoiseach Bertie Ahern will speak about the Northern Ireland protocol at the Institute of International and European Affairs today.
The Taoiseach and Charlie McConalogue will announce a €1.5 billion agri-environment package today, which will act as a softener ahead of the announcement next month of mandatory cuts in agricultural emissions. Here’s my report previewing it.
Dáil
14.00: Leaders’ Questions.
15.05: Expressions of sympathy for the late Austin Currie.
15.50: Pre-European Council statements.
17.40: Motion re opt-in to EU Proposal for a Directive on Combating Violence against Women and Domestic Violence.
18.35: Private Members’ business (Sinn Féin): Motion re Emergency Hospital Provision and Emergency Department in Our Lady’s Hospital, Navan.
20.35: Parliamentary Questions: Oral, Catherine Martin, Minister for Tourism, Culture, Arts, Gaeltacht, Sport and Media. The title does not get any less ridiculous over time.
22.05: Topical issues.
22.53: Dáil adjourns.
Seanad
12.00: Commencement matters.
13.30: Order of Business.
14.45: Insurance (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2022 — committee and remaining stages.
15.45: Planning and Development (Amendment) (No. 2) Bill 2022.
18.30: Electoral Reform Bill 2022 — second stage.
20.30: Seanad adjourns.
Committees
11.00: Education: Discussion on the need for revised criteria for Special Needs Assistant (SNA) qualification. With Josepha Madigan, Minister of State at the Department of Education, representatives from Forsá and from Special Needs Assistants.
15.00: Justice: Engagement with stakeholders on the Proceeds of Crime (Gross Human Rights Abuses) Bill 2020. Officials from Department of Justice; Bill Browder, The Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign: and representatives from Criminal Assets Bureau.
16:00 Justice: Detailed scrutiny of the Ban on Sex for Rent Bill 2022 with representatives from Rape Crisis Network Ireland (RCNI); and Threshold; officials from Department of Justice; and Ann Murphy, Irish Examiner.
15.00: Housing, Local Government and Heritage: Universal Design with representatives from Age Action Ireland; Irish Wheelchair Association’ National Disability Authority; and Disability Federation of Ireland.
15.00: Foreign Affairs and Defence: A discussion on pre-budget submission and the Global Food Crisis with a particular focus on the Horn of Africa and West Africa. Jane Ann McKenna of Dóchas, Assalama Sidi and Colm Byrne from Oxfam; Paul O’Brien of Plan International Ireland; and Siobhán Walsh of Goal.
