The tumultuous events in the House of Commons in recent days have made it clear that the battle of the backstop is not one between Ireland and Britain, or even the EU and Britain, as it is so widely portrayed, but an internal fight for the future of the United Kingdom.
The struggle is one between the forces of reaction and extremism as represented by Boris Johnson against the proponents of the traditional British values of moderation and common sense epitomised by the leading Conservative politicians who had the courage to put their political futures on the line for the sake of their country.
How it will all end is anybody’s guess but what happened this week represented a serious setback for Johnson as it made plain his utter disregard for the traditions of British democracy. This may well have undermined his prospects of the easy general election win on which his strategy was based.
Johnson and Cummings have managed the extraordinary feat of making Jeremy Corbyn look like a statesman
The prime minister’s reckless decision to prorogue parliament has backfired to date. Instead of shutting down moves by opposition parties and his internal opponents to prevent a no-deal Brexit, it brought them together in an unprecedented cross-party alliance to thwart him.
The decision to expel 21 Conservative MPs including two former chancellors of the exchequer, Ken Clarke and Phillip Hammond, his recent leadership opponent Rory Stewart and Nicholas Soames, long-time party servant and grandson of Winston Churchill, was a shocking move that has the capacity to alienate a sizeable segment of Conservative voters and push them into the arms of the Liberal Democrats.
Brother’s resignation
Johnson’s scorched-earth tactics, attributed to his principal political adviser, Dominic Cummings, may well get him the general election he is aiming for but it is an open question whether his abandonment of traditional Conservative values for the rhetoric of a populist mob leader will bring him the majority he craves. The resignation from government of his brother Jo in protest at the purge shows how traumatised some party members have become.
Ken Clarke, the longest-serving MP in the Commons, said two days ago that he did not recognise the Conservative Party any more. “It’s the Brexit Party, rebadged,” he told BBC2’s Newsnight programme, adding that the “knockabout character” of a prime minister had devised the most right-wing cabinet a Conservative government has ever produced.
Johnson and Cummings have managed the extraordinary feat of making Jeremy Corbyn look like a statesman, and in fairness the Labour leader has played his hand well in recent days, with a good deal of prodding from sensible frontbenchers such as Keir Starmer.
Johnson has hinted that he is prepared to look at some version of the original EU proposal of a Northern Ireland-only backstop
A UK general election now looks inevitable, probably in late October, and Johnson is already in campaigning mode, attempting to rally his supporters by insulting Corbyn and attempting to provoke him into agreeing an early election date. His tactics are designed to win over droves of Labour leave voters but could cost him many traditional Conservative voters.
The UK’s “first past the post” electoral system makes the outcome difficult to predict even with the most up-to-date polling data. Unless the Conservatives agree an electoral pact with Nigel Farage they could lose far more seats than they gain, while tactical voting by opponents of the government could maximise the number of seats for Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
Be prepared
Whatever happens the Irish Government can only prepare for the worst while hoping that a no-deal will be averted by developments in British politics. Whether or not Johnson will proceed with his planned visit to Dublin on Monday will depend on events but it is doubtful if it will achieve much in any case.
If the visit goes ahead, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will face the challenge of behaving in a dignified manner while not allowing himself to be used as a pawn in Johnson’s election games. The prime minister used Chancellor Merkel’s politeness to give the impression that he was serious about negotiating an EU exit deal when he intended to do nothing of the kind.
Varadkar will have to display firmness about the need to protect the Belfast Agreement while avoiding the pitfall of being cast in the role of the truculent Irish man intent on harming British interests. After the events of this week it is clear that a majority of MPs in the House of Commons believe British interests are best served by a deal with the EU. That position tallies with the approach taken by the Irish Government.
A UK election could well change the arithmetic for better or worse as far as a deal is concerned. One thing that is clear is that, whoever is in power, a formula will have to be found to deal with the backstop impasse, and there is a growing consensus that the current UK-wide backstop cannot survive.
Johnson has hinted that he is prepared to look at some version of the original EU proposal of a Northern Ireland-only backstop while the deputy leader of the Democratic Unionist Party Nigel Dodds has said his party is open to discussions with the prime minister on a possible all-Ireland food-standards zone. An acceptable compromise along these lines could get everybody off the hook, and it is something the Government in Dublin will need to give careful consideration if and when it emerges.