The last-minute cancellation of the Taoiseach’s meeting with US president Joe Biden at the White House on Thursday was very unfortunate for Micheál Martin on a personal level, but the St Patrick’s Day events in Washington served to highlight the importance of the US link for Ireland in the ongoing row over the Northern Ireland protocol.
Martin was unable to travel to Washington last year because of the Covid pandemic so it was doubly unfortunate that he had to miss the opportunity to meet the US president given that his current term as Taoiseach will be over by the time next year’s event comes around.
Still, the important aspect of Martin’s visit to Washington was to reinforce American support for the Irish and EU insistence that the UK honour its agreement to fully implement the Brexit deal. All the signs are that Biden and the US Congress remain adamant that a trade deal between the US and the UK will not happen if the British government reneges on the Northern Ireland protocol.
Aside from the drama of the Taoiseach’s departure from the Ireland Fund dinner on Wednesday night, the event was addressed by the US president and the speaker of the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. In her speech she told the gathering, which included the British ambassador to the US, that there would be no US-UK trade deal if the Irish border was “hardened”.
It was a timely warning because hopes that the joint response of the EU and the UK to the Russian invasion of Ukraine might have eased tensions over the protocol appear to have been premature. This was evident after last weekend’s London meeting between Micheál Martin and Boris Johnson.
Common front
Despite the common front against Russian aggression and relaxed atmosphere surrounding the meeting of the two leaders, which took place in advance of the Ireland versus England rugby match at Twickenham, there was an ominous tone to the statement issued later by Johnson’s side.
It said the prime minister had reiterated the need for significant changes in the protocol. “He said that while greater ambition and flexibility was needed from the EU in the negotiations, it was his hope that the same spirit of co-operation that had characterised the UK/EU relationship in respect of Ukraine could also be applied to resolving the issues with the protocol.”
On the face of it, this was a blunt call on the EU to back down on the protocol in light of the war in Ukraine, rather than the olive branch that might have been expected in light of the common threat facing all of western Europe.
The EU’s negotiator Maros Sefcovic responded during the week with a message of his own. “If there’s one thing this war puts into perspective, it’s the danger of constantly trying to spark divisions with European neighbours and allies. It’s time for all of us in the West to be united, so I hope that we will see a tampering down of the anti-EU rhetoric from Britain.”
Before the meeting with Johnson, Martin had been upbeat about the protocol, saying that there was a growing view within Northern Ireland, particularly in business and industry, that the protocol was working, delivering investment into the region based on access to the EU single market.
“So anybody I’ve met in Northern Ireland all want to continue access to the EU single market. It’s a good basic principle to start off on. And my view, given the improved relationship between the UK and the EU as a result of the partnership on Ukraine, I would like to think that in the fullness of time we will be able to resolve this issue. But we’ll take it step by step,” he told reporters.
Negative tone
However, the discussions between Taoiseach and prime minister and the negative tone of the British statement afterwards came as a reality check. It seems that far from the war in Ukraine promoting a more conciliatory approach by Johnson, he is insisting that the EU will have to make even further concessions.
It is against this background that Sefcovic called for a dialling down of the British rhetoric. Whether by accident or design, the EU vice president also happened to be in Washington during St Patrick’s week. He was there officially for talks with senior US officials about developing strategies to help the EU get over its dependence on Russian gas and critical minerals from China, but he also engaged in discussions with a range of people about the Northern Ireland protocol.
He met senior figures in the US Congress including Richard Neal, chair of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and Brendan Boyle, the head of the EU Caucus on Capitol Hill. Given that Congress will have to approve any trade agreement between the UK and the US, the influence of these powerful Irish-American politicians could be an important element in the ongoing arm-wrestle over the protocol.
Boris Johnson still remains under pressure from the hardliners in his own party to walk away from the deal he signed with the EU, so the countervailing pressure from the US could be the crucial element in determining whether or not he honours his word.