The detail of the picture painted by Friday’s elections is still emerging, as the counts around the country continue their slow progress towards conclusion.
But it is clear the elections reveal the process of change that has defined Irish politics since the economic crash and the great recession is continuing – accelerating in some respects, retrenching in others.
The de-aligning of voters from their traditional allegiances sparked by the crash and the recession has made Irish politics more volatile, less predictable, more prone to sudden enthusiasms and wild swings – evident this time in the surge of support for many Green candidates, though emerging results from the local elections suggests that this is more a mid-sized breaker rather than a giant tsunami.
Paradoxically, the voter volatility is now working in favour of Fianna Fáil – the great losers from the changes wrought by the economic crash. Many voters have turned away from Sinn Féin in Dublin and back towards the party whose candidates were – literally in some cases – chased off the doorsteps in 2009 and 2011. Well, it’s a long road that has no turning, as they say.
The extent of the swings and changes that emerged when the ballot boxes were opened is described elsewhere on our pages today. But what does it mean for Irish politics and for the prospects for the next government? Politics is always future-focused: so what does it mean for the future?
First of all there were two elections, and they returned different results. The Euros grab most of the attention because they are easier to understand and people tend to be familiar with the candidates. But if you are looking to take lessons for the next general election, the locals are more important. There’s quite a lot of evidence for this, not least the last local elections and the subsequent results of the general election.
Certain common trends between the two elections are clear, though: a big increase in support for the Greens, a disastrous dive for Sinn Féin and a reality check for Fine Gael which did not see the gains it anticipated, a worrying sign for a party that made Leo Varadkar leader because they thought he would deliver an electoral turbo-boost.
The hammering that Fine Gael’s reputation for fiscal prudence and economic competence (always more vaunted inside the party than outside) got from the children’s hospital controversy and recent signals of budgetary looseness has almost certainly contributed to these results, especially to the flight to the Greens among middle-class voters. That may well be fixable, but not without a fight with some vested interests.
Labour will tack on a few seats but there’s no big revival, and it’s mixed news for the small parties and Independents. For Fianna Fáil it was a disappointing Euros but a very encouraging local elections, especially in Dublin. After the Greens, it is Fianna Fáil which has the greatest reason to feel encouraged with these results.
The first consequence of the Green gains will be the emboldening of the Government’s policy response to climate change, due in the coming weeks when Richard Bruton unveils the administration’s climate action plan. Successive governments have taken the attitude of St Augustine to the issue – “Lord, make me chaste, but not yet” – but the Greens’ success, while it may not achieve chastity, might at least discourage promiscuity.
Low-carbon challenge
There will, however, remain a strong scepticism in the Government that voters are ready to accept the costs and sacrifice of a sudden move to a low-carbon economy. Why do you think they’re so windy about a carbon tax? They haven’t forgotten what happened to Irish Water. Nor should they.
And it would be a mistake to overstate the extent of the Green surge: while the results were spectacular in some places, they will end up with somewhere between around 6 per cent of the vote in the local elections. This is a great improvement, but it can hardly be described as sweeping all before it.
The performance of small parties in mid-term elections – especially when it catches everyone by surprise – tends to see its long-term significance overstated. Ask the Workers Party, the Progressive Democrats, Labour (anyone keep their Gilmore for Taoiseach mugs?) and Sinn Féin. It’s even happened to the Greens before. When 90 per cent of people don’t vote for a party, you can’t really say that they have dominated the election, can you?
So some perspective in these matters, often understandably in short supply in the excitement of the moment, is usually wise.
The Greens’ outstanding performance – and it is, the above caution notwithstanding, outstanding – is grounded in public concern about climate change. That will inevitably affect politics, locally and nationally. And one of the ways it will do that is by altering the calculus for the formation of the next government.
These elections demonstrate that the gap between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil has narrowed to almost non-existence. Fianna Fáil will outshoot its rivals in the locals, while Fine Gael will win the Euros. But the two parties are basically neck-and-neck for the general election.
That means that Micheál Martin and Leo Varadkar will both be desperately seeking support to form the next government. Enter Eamon Ryan and a clutch of Green TDs – possibly aligned with a wider red-Green group of TDs. They would be in a position to wield serious power. They could name their price.
You’ll have noticed this scenario does not include Sinn Féin. That is another part of the weekend’s legacy – a long and painful postmortem for Mary Lou McDonald. It is hard to see how she would seek to be a minority partner in a coalition after this.
For elections which politicians of all parties said voters were not really engaged in, the fallout is pretty significant.