ANALYSIS:The changes in Downing Street will have little immediate effect on Anglo-Irish relations
WHEN NEW neighbours move into the house next door, there is always a period of watching and waiting, and hoping for the best. Will they park their SUV in front of your driveway? Will there be noisy late-night, or worse still, all-night parties to keep you awake? Will they maintain the place so that the value of other houses on the street – especially your own – retain at least some value at this unpredictable time?
The relationship between sovereign states is not entirely dissimilar. The outgoing resident of 10 Downing Street, Gordon Brown, at least had the virtue of familiarity. He took no major, continuing interest in Northern Ireland affairs but neither did he do any damage.
His predecessor of course, Tony Blair, would be widely considered as the most pro-Irish leader of a British government since Gladstone. Whatever about his Iraq policy, he very much endeared himself to the political establishment in Dublin with his enthusiasm for the peace process.
David Cameron has declared his support for the Belfast Agreement and the St Andrews Agreement, so there are no worries there. The ill-conceived alliance with the Ulster Unionist Party did not inspire any enthusiasm on this side of the Border but, thanks to the Northern electorate, that is now a mere footnote.
The appointment of Owen Paterson as Northern Ireland Secretary will be welcomed, at least initially. He was an enthusiastic shadow secretary who spent considerable periods in both parts of this island.
There will be concern in some circles at the professed enthusiasm of himself and his prime minister for cutting back the public sector in the North although there are others who will have to agree with Cameron’s description of the situation as “unsustainable”.
Another regular visitor to this island is William Hague, now foreign secretary. It will come as little surprise that his relationship with Minister for Foreign Affairs Micheál Martin is amiable.
The commitment by the new British government to kill off Labour’s precious scheme to issue identity cards has come as a relief in ruling circles here. It was envisaged that different cards would be issued to those who considered themselves British and those who regarded themselves as Irish and this would have been likely to generate tensions in the North where there are already enough people who see themselves as belonging to different camps.
Conservative administrations have a reputation for being tougher than Labour in the security area. In the event that a sustained dissident republican campaign of violence were under way, there would be some concern that heavy-handed security policies might prove counterproductive. On the other hand, Tory secretaries of state down through the years, such as William Whitelaw and Peter Brooke, proved far more popular with nationalists than Labour’s Roy Mason, for example.
The parity of esteem enjoyed by both states as members of the European Union has proven immensely beneficial for the bilateral relationship. The Tory-Lib Dem commitment to oppose any further European treaty changes involving a transfer of powers from member states will raise few objections on this side of the water where most elements of the political class have had their fill of EU referendums for the time being, thank you. Of course, in the future an issue could arise where the Irish interest was seen to be best-served by a treaty change, referendum notwithstanding, but nothing of this kind is on the horizon at the moment.
If the North remains comparatively quiescent, there is little or no reason why the Cameron-Clegg partnership should upset the Cowen-Gormley one or, indeed, any of its likely successors.
Incidentally, David Cameron promised on his pre-election visit to Belfast that: “If I’m your prime minister, I’ll be back in a week.” Don’t hold your breath: given the pressure he’s under it might take him a little longer.
Deaglán de Bréadún is a Political Correspondent