ANALYSIS:The two parties have come up with a document that is long on aspiration and short on detail
THE PHRASE so often used in the negotiations for the Belfast Agreement of Good Friday 1998 comes to mind when considering Fine Gael and Labour’s newly-published joint document: “The devil is in the detail.”
Given the short period of time in which Towards Recovery: Programme for a National Government 2011-2016was assembled, it was inevitable there would be some grey areas and a fairly liberal helping of that popular political confection, fudge.
Indeed it was a minor miracle and a tribute to the Labour backroom team that the 64-page foolscap document was ready and waiting for the party’s delegates as they arrived for the special conference in the O’Reilly Hall at UCD yesterday afternoon.
With its red cover and red rose symbol, it looked at first like a Labour Party document but it was clear from the text that the Fine Gael input was far from negligible.
Due acknowledgment is given in the preamble to the “political whirlwind” that swept through the ballot boxes of this State last Friday week (some are already calling it Ireland’s “Pencil Revolution”). Revolutions are usually occasions for euphoria but the two parties strike a sober note by pointing out that this is “one of the darkest hours” in modern Irish history. After what they describe as a period of “reckless, ill-disciplined” government, Fine Gael and Labour are promising “strong, resolute leadership”.
The hurried nature of the process under which the new government is being formed was evident from the manner in which “big ticket” items are often given the same prominence as relatively minor issues, and there is no “executive summary”.
The strong electoral mandate to negotiate a “more credible package” with the EU and the IMF is duly noted and there is a combined warning that “the parties to the government recognise that there is a growing danger of the State’s debt burden becoming unsustainable”.
Labour supporters will be pleased the Fine Gael target of 30,000 public sector job cuts has been significantly scaled down and that Labour’s demand for a Strategic Investment Bank has been included in the document, although that commitment is not accompanied by any detail as to funding.
The undertaking by both parties to reverse the cut in the minimum wage also features and the speed of its implementation will be watched with eager anticipation by the unions and, no doubt, equal dismay on the employers’ side.
Fine Gael will be happy that its plan for a New Economic and Recovery Authority (NewERA) to oversee semi-State investment and reform is on the “to do” list, although the manifesto figure of €7 billion has become “significant additional investments”. You’re in government now, folks! Surprisingly, there is no reference to the proposed reconfiguration of the Department of Finance to accommodate another minister with full cabinet status to take responsibility for public sector reform, although this will no doubt be dealt with by incoming taoiseach Enda Kenny when the Dáil resumes on Wednesday.
In his closing speech yesterday, Gilmore warned Labour delegates about the prospect of declining opinion poll ratings and “a forest of placards” protesting outside ministerial engagements in response to tough but necessary decisions.
One of the first causes of discontent is likely to be the introduction of water charges. This comes from the Fine Gael shopping list (Labour said it was a “stealth tax”) and will doubtless be exploited to the full by Labour’s rivals on the left.
Another item which will doubtless provide material for left-wing critics is the pledge to seek “up to €2 billion in sales of non-strategic State assets”. There could be some lively cabinet discussions on the practical implementation of this Fine Gael proposal.
The universal social charge has been a most painful imposition since its introduction at the start of the year and probably contributed more than any other single factor to the demise of Fianna Fáil.
The programme for government contains a commitment only to review the charge, but it is unclear whether this refers to Fine Gael’s pledge to assess its effect on work incentives and employment participation, or Labour’s plan to shift the charge away from those on the lowest incomes onto employees earning more than €100,000. This is also likely to enliven cabinet discussions in the future.
In the area of constitutional reform, Fine Gael has made great play of its undertaking to abolish Seanad Éireann which was to be one of five items to be included in a referendum on a specially-designated “constitution day” within the next 12 months.
The Labour manifesto was more circumspect: the party would establish a constitutional convention to consider abolition of the Seanad, among other proposals.
The programme for government accepts Labour’s plan for a convention and promises to “prioritise” a referendum on the “urgent” matter of Seanad abolition, but the 12-month deadline seems to have gone out the window of the Sycamore Room of Government Buildings where the joint document was negotiated.
However, the convention is to come forward with its report within 12 months (another report!) and the topics it will review include Labour’s proposal to permit same-sex marriage as well as other changes, including a presidential term of five years instead of seven and a possible reduction in the voting age to an unspecified level.
Healthcare was an issue where the two parties were seen to have a good deal of common ground, with Labour claiming that Fine Gael had simply taken up ideas the smaller party had been proposing for years.
Universal health insurance is to be introduced, replacing the two-tier system with one based on access according to need, with payments based on ability to contribute. This could be the new coalition’s “Noel Browne achievement” but only time will tell.
Fine Gael’s proposal for a graduate tax has disappeared, to be replaced by a vague commitment to introduce a funding system that will not have a negative impact on access for students. Its controversial proposal to drop Irish as a compulsory subject of study for the Leaving Certificate has also been quietly shelved. In general, this is a document which contains a considerable number of concessions to the Labour Party while at the same time preserving an underlying tone of fiscal stringency and strict housekeeping that is generally more in line with the Fine Gael tradition. There are several issues which remain vague and one is left with the distinct feeling that, as far as the two parties in this government are concerned, the debate has only just begun.
Deaglán de Bréadún is Political Correspondent