There is an old adage that the first skill required in politics is the ability to count. For the parties of the Irish left, newly buoyed by Catherine Connolly’s emphatic victory in the presidential election, the question is how to turn that symbolic success into the only metric that truly matters: seats in Dáil Éireann.
The arithmetic is simple but challenging. If the various groupings that backed Connolly hope to form a government together, they would need in the region of 25 additional seats. That implies a substantial shift in voter sentiment. It also means some form of electoral agreement to ensure that gains are not squandered through mutually destructive competition. As the presidential campaign demonstrated, co-operation is possible. But the Social Democrats, Labour and the Greens already find themselves hotly contesting the same relatively shallow pool of voters.
More challenging still will be the task of agreeing common ground. An alliance that spans environmentalism, social democracy, left-populist nationalism and neo-Marxism is an unruly jumble of priorities. It must find positions on taxation, spending, security and social reform that are not merely compatible but convincing beyond its base. Voters will demand clarity on the trade-offs that come with decarbonisation, on public service funding and on Ireland’s dangerously narrow tax base.
There is, at least, time. As much as four years could pass before the next general election. It would therefore be premature to expect detailed policies now. Strategic ambiguity combined with vocal critiques of government shortcomings can be expected. But the closer polling day comes, the less that will suffice. Sinn Féin’s pre-election slump last year is a reminder that voters will only respond to a credible and coherent alternative.
RM Block
Still, the past 10 months have seen tentative steps toward greater alignment: tactical co-ordination in the Dáil; shared statements on issues of the day; now a united front in the presidential campaign. The Galway West byelection may provide the next test of whether that unity can survive contact with the realities of electoral rivalry.
Ireland has never had a government led by parties of the left. Administrations of various stripes have enacted policies that elsewhere might merit that label. High tax revenues have allowed recent governments to increase spending while blunting attacks from opponents who argue that a different economic course is needed.
The left thus faces a dilemma: it must offer more than promises to spend money that may not eventually materialise. But to do so, it will have to address the very real policy differences between its constituent parts. These could be papered over relatively easily during the broad strokes of a presidential election campaign. That will not be the case in a general election.
