Now that Fianna Fáil has settled on Jim Gavin as its presidential candidate, attention will inevitably turn to how the former Dublin GAA manager performs over the next six weeks and how he fares on polling day. Yet the party’s own internal manoeuvring before Gavin’s nomination also reveals something about Fianna Fáil’s future and the question of leadership that now hovers over Micheál Martin.
Martin will soon mark 15 years as leader of his party, the longest continuous tenure since Éamon de Valera. Under the Coalition deal with Fine Gael he is due to step down as Taoiseach in November 2027, handing over to his partner in government. Some assume he will also relinquish the party leadership well in advance of the next general election, which must be held by the end of 2029, to allow a successor time to settle in.
In an interview yesterday Martin inisted he had no intention of stepping down. That is what he has to say right now but a refusal to move would almost certainly provoke unrest, and perhaps outright revolt, among his parliamentary party and those who see themselves as natural heirs. In that context, this presidential race can be read as the first skirmish in the contest to shape Fianna Fáil after Martin.
The emergence of Gavin as Martin’s preferred nominee, and the seamless endorsement he received from every senior Fianna Fáil minister, appeared to confirm the leader’s continuing command of the organisation. The optics suggested unity, discipline and the late PJ Mara’s mantra of “una duce, una voce” – one leader, one voice.
RM Block
Look more closely, though, and the picture is less tidy. Minister for Justice Jim O’Callaghan was notably slow to back the Gavin ticket. Billy Kelleher, the Ireland South MEP, recorded a stronger than expected showing in last Tuesday’s parliamentary party vote. These are modest signs, but they hint at a party where the succession question is no longer dormant.
Meanwhile, the Government’s own performance is giving cause for concern. The early months of what is almost certainly Martin’s final term as Taoiseach have failed to inspire. Key housing targets have slipped. Major infrastructure plans remain stalled. A perception of drift is taking hold and the forthcoming October budget will be the first serious test of whether the coalition can demonstrate urgency and ambition.
The subsequent presidential election may prove an early referendum on Martin’s judgment. If Gavin performs well and wins, the Taoiseach’s instincts will be vindicated and his grip on Fianna Fáil reinforced. But a faltering campaign would invite questions not just about the candidate but about the authority of the man who chose him and about how soon the battle to succeed Micheál Martin might truly begin.
