The sycophants with whom Donald Trump has surrounded himself in his second administration are fond of quoting his 1987 book The Art of the Deal as evidence of the US president’s negotiating genius. In that telling, the Trump method is to open with outrageous demands before conceding ground and emerging triumphant with an outcome to his liking.
That theory is currently being tested with the wildly erratic positions adopted by the US on trade and tariffs. But there has been little sign of it in the administration’s approach to ending the war in Ukraine. Instead, Trump’s envoys have been alarmingly receptive to the demands of Vladimir Putin and willing to reward his aggression by conceding many of Russia’s maximalist war aims before full peace talks even begin.
That was further confirmed this week with reports that Washington’s latest proposals include de jure recognition of Russia’s annexation of Crimea, along with a freezing of the current front line, effectively acknowledging Russian control of 20 per cent of Ukraine’s territory.
That contrasts with the reported position of Ukraine and a number of its European allies, which propose a full, unconditional ceasefire followed by negotiations on all elements of a territorial settlement. The Europeans also call for American involvement in post-ceasefire peace monitoring, something the US has repeatedly rejected.
Yesterday Trump’s chief negotiator, Steve Witkoff, held talks described by the Kremlin as “constructive” with Putin, who has been ratcheting up the pressure with a series of brutal air strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine. Following the deadliest attack in a year on Kyiv this week, Trump posted a rare plea to Putin on social media to halt the strikes. Whether the Russian president has read The Art of the Deal or not, he appears confident the US will ultimately force Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy into further concessions.
That remains to be seen. But indications from Moscow are that Putin, emboldened by Trump’s eagerness to accommodate Russian interests and the US president’s obvious antipathy towards Zelenskiy, has calculated that now may not be the moment to end hostilities.
In an interview on Friday, Trump confirmed the US proposals include the full annexation of Crimea, which Russia has controlled since 2014. While it is true that Ukraine has little realistic prospect of regaining its lost southern and eastern territories in the foreseeable future, American willingness to concede on these and other issues, such as lifting sanctions, would drastically weaken the position of its negotiators.
There is speculation that Trump wants to see a ceasefire by the time of his 100th day in office, which falls next Wednesday. Not for the first time under this president, it seems hubris and narcissism are driving policy.
