The findings of the first Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll of the year, the last batch of which as published this weekend, contain important messages for both Government and Opposition - and for all those seeking to understand the public mood at a time of deep political and economic uncertainty.
There is certainly no honeymoon for the Coalition partners evident in the numbers. While Fianna Fáil will be happy to maintain its general election support, and its leader Micheál Martin is in a dominant position as Taoiseach and the most popular party leader, there are worrying signs for Fine Gael that the slide in support which began during the general election is continuing.
Contrary to popular belief, it was not the unfortunate encounter between Simon Harris and care worker Charlotte Fallon in Kanturk that precipitated the decline in the Fine Gael vote. Examination of the polling shows it had begun before then – suggesting other, perhaps deeper factors, are at work. Though the next election is a long time away, Harris and his party will watch future polls with some anxiety.
Sinn Féin saw a dramatic recovery in its support to regain the number one spot, a development which the party will hope means it can put the difficult experiences of last year behind it. It would be a mistake, though, not to interrogate the reasons behind the party’s astonishing slump before the elections of last year. There is a view in Sinn Féin that to move to the centre in preparation for government was a fatal mistake. Perhaps that is so– but it could also be that voters simply found the way Sinn Féin sought to move to the centre to be unconvincing.
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Whatever about the parties’ fortunes, it is clear that the public is deeply worried about the effects of the Trump presidency. A great majority are more pessimistic about the future, while voters are evenly split on whether planned tax cuts or increases in public spending should be the first to go if a trade war hammers the public finances here. Indeed, there is a risk that the expectation of an economic slowdown becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. Sentiment is a powerful factor in economic decisions and it has clearly been damaged in recent weeks.
The Trump presidency is also presenting new questions on security. There are signs in the poll of a nuanced appreciation of the changed environment, though the attachment of a large majority of the Irish public to the traditional policy of neutrality remains strong. They may turn out to be open to changes in the way Irish neutrality works – as they have been in the past– but the Government will have to be careful in making the case for these changes, as it will soon do on the triple lock. While neutrality has always evolved, if the public believes that the Government is dumping the idea completely, then strong opposition is likely.
