For the third time in eight years, the US stands at a fateful crossroads. Should he win next Tueaday’s election, Donald Trump would make history as only the second president since the country’s founding to serve two non-consecutive terms. Kamala Harris, if she prevails, will be the first female president and first woman of colour to hold the office.
With three days to go, if opinion polls are correct, the race remains a dead heat.
Whichever candidate wins, a wave of recrimination will follow on the losing side. If Harris is beaten, Democrats will bemoan Joe Biden’s misguided attempt to seek a second term. If Trump fails again, some Republicans will argue that a more mainstream candidate would have performed better. But the wafer-thin margins in a handful of states which will probably decide the result are only one small part of a much broader American malaise; the bitterness and division which have characterised this campaign are set to continue.
Since becoming her party’s nominee without a contest in July, Harris has run as a generic Democrat, choosing not to differentiate herself from the unpopular policies of the current adminstration of which she is a part, while appealing more forcefully to voters motivated by concerns over abortion rights. It remains unclear what a Harris presidency’s priorities would be. But, with her party set to lose control of the Senate, it would face a struggle to achieve them.
A possible second Trump term poses a real threat to American democratic values and institutions. It would be highly naive to accept the claims of some apologists that his repeated promises to exact vengeance against political opponents and to bend the levers of the world’s most powerful country to his will are mere rhetorical flourishes. They should be taken both literally and seriously. There is also ample evidence that, unlike his first chaotic administration, a second Trump presidency would be more ruthless and efficient in pursuit of its goals, and that the supreme court which he has shaped would be disinclined to rein him in.
Internationally, Trump’s protectionist instincts and disdain for traditional alliances could have profound consequences for the world economy and geopolitical stability. Most immediately affected would be US backing for Ukraine. But uncertainty and instability elsewhere are almost guaranteed. And his victory would embolden illiberal authoritarians everywhere.
Trump’s criminality, venality, misogyny, xenophobia and psychological instability render him unfit for any office and it is to be fervently hoped that he will fail again next Tuesday. But should he do so, the fear, resentment and deep disenchantment with the American social contract which have fuelled his rise will surely find new forms of expression which could, difficult though it may be to imagine, prove even darker.