At the end of an uncomfortable week for Sinn Féin, the main opposition party will be hoping that the spotlight now turns to other points on the political spectrum. That seems quite possible. Noises from the Government parties grow ever louder about their intention to agree a pre-Christmas date for the general election.
Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin hinted as much when he said this week that he would not object to an election in late November or early December, as long as key pieces of legislation had been passed. Green leader Roderic O’Gorman was more specific yesterday about his preferred date of November 29th, which he will bring to a meeting with his two Coalition partners on Monday. For the moment, the Taoiseach has kept his counsel. It remains Simon Harris’s prerogative to decide when to seek a dissolution of the Dáil but this week’s comments suggest that this could well happen during the week after the October recess, in the days immediately following the US elections on November 5th.
That could still change, of course. But one way or another, the course is already firmly set for an election which has been anticipated for a long time but which could yet yield surprising results. In the modern political climate, campaigns matter more than ever. Research shows that an increasingly volatile electorate and declining party loyalty mean that many voters will only decide who to support in the days leading up to the election.
What will be the issues that influence their decision? There is no reason to look beyond the answers they have given repeatedly when asked over the last several years. Housing, cost of living and public services remain their main concerns, joined more recently by immigration.
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At this point, in the wake of a giveaway pre-election budget, with the first payments due to land in households across the country in the coming weeks, the Government parties – Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in particular – will feel confident about their prospects.
That confidence will have been increased by the reputational battering which Sinn Féin has endured over the last seven days.
But when the official campaign begins, it will focus minds on questions that offer profitable lines of attack for the Opposition. Housing provision remains woefully short of what is required while homelessness figures are a disgrace. Years of under-investment are exposing glaring deficiencies in transport, water and power. The Government will take credit for the rude health of the economy but there is ample evidence that it has been a poor steward of the public finances when it comes to getting value for money. Vigorous debate on these and other issues could still change the minds of voters, as well as the final result.