The news from Ukraine this year has mostly been of slow, attritional Russian advances in the east of the country, along with relentless bombardment of cities and infrastructure. The picture has been tempered somewhat by successful Ukrainian counterstrikes, particularly in Crimea, forcing the withdrawal of Russian naval forces from the Black Sea.
But the inescapable reality of Russia’s advantages in manpower, munitions and weaponry has been clear, as Kyiv struggles to replenish its frontline troops and waits for the delivery of further military aid from its allies in Europe and the US. All of which suggested up until the middle of last week that the overall negative trend for Ukraine was likely to continue until winter at least.
Since then, a surprise offensive into the western Russian province of Kursk has changed that equation, at least for the moment. While there had been previous, smaller, cross- border incursions by anti-Putin Russian militants tacitly supported by Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s government, this current action is on a different scale. Serious losses have been inflicted on Russian units, hundreds of soldiers have surrendered, and thousands of civilians have fled their homes. The picture remains unclear,but Ukrainian forces appear to have penetrated at least 30km into Russia. They currently control several hundred square kilometres of territory and are within reach of strategic energy pipelines. It is the first foreign incursion Russia has experienced since the second World War.
The attack is clearly intended to draw attention and firepower away from the Donbass front where the fiercest fighting is currently taking place. But it is also an effective coup de theatre, undermining Putin’s claim to be the protector of the Russian people, while boosting the morale of Ukrainians who have endured more than two years of bombardment, much of it coming from across the border. A notable feature has been the prominent use of Nato-supplied armour and missile systems, suggesting that Kyiv’s allies have relaxed previous prohibitions on the use of these arms across the border.
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Some analysts urge caution, fearing Ukraine could find itself over-stretched if it lingers too long or pushes too far into Russia. With estimates putting the number of troops involved in the operation at up to 10,000, there is potential for dire consequences elsewhere along the thinly stretched front line. For the moment, though, the strategic intentions of the Ukrainian military remain unknown, as does whether the assault will have any bearing on the overall course of a war which shows no sign of coming to an end. But in reversing an apparently inexorable narrative of Russian success, Ukraine has sent a signal to allies and enemies alike that the conflict remains fluid and its outcome impossible to predict.