The failure by both the US Congress and the European Council to agree substantial cash packages for Ukraine – respectively, $60 billion in military aid and €50 billion to support the government - has fuelled fears of war weariness and weakening of resolve by allies to sustain Kyiv’s fight.
Congressional leaders remain hopeful, however, that a deal will yet be agreed with Republicans, who have made aid conditional on enhanced Mexico border controls. Meanwhile,the lone veto-wielding EU hold-out against aid, Hungary’s prime minister Viktor Orbán, was nevertheless forced to concede an opening of EU accession talks with Ukraine. Leaders remain confident that a deal on the money will be possible at an special summit in January, or, if necessary, among the 26 other member states.
In contrast, reflecting the continuing determination of EU leaders, a pre-summit decision by Germany, despite enormous budget difficulties, fulfilled its promise of doubling next year’s military aid to Ukraine to ¤8 billion from ¤4 billion.
The welcome decision by the EU Council early on Friday morning to open accession discussions with both Ukraine and Moldova, a milestone on Kyiv’s path to joining the EU, is a commitment to continuing EU solidarity. It is an important morale boost to Ukraine and a political blow to President Putin who sees its EU membership as an act of aggression. Georgia was also granted EU candidate status, a move that will also not go down well in Moscow,which will see it as vindication of its claims of encirclement by a hostile West.
The EU’s affirmation of continued support is particularly important against the background of a slowing down of the ground war, and a difficult election year in the US with the possibility of Donald Trump’s re-election.
But the union’s decision-making vulnerability to the rogue veto has been again brought into sharp focus. The decision on accession talks, seen as politically vital by 26 member states, was only possible because of Orbán’s eventual willingness to absent himself from the vote. And what made his threatened use of the veto particularly galling to fellow leaders was Orbán’s willingness to leverage that veto to force the EU to pay up billions of euro, withheld over the country’s unrelated continuing breaches of rule of law standards.
The veto is only supposed to be used to defend a member-state’s vital national interest and such linkage to unrelated issues is contrary to the principles of collegiality underpinning the EU’s collective decision-making. The gridlock on key decisions, which will be exacerbated inevitably by expanded membership, is seriously undermining the credibility of the EU and its ability to act on the world stage. Orbán, by his abuse of the system, is forcing removal or dilution of the veto on to the union’s agenda.