Global temperatures have accelerated to record levels in many places, an ominous sign that the climate crisis combined with a gathering El Niño could mean 2023 becomes the hottest year ever recorded.
El Niño is a natural oscillation in the Pacific that has a warming effect, especially on the Atlantic, but the combination of overheating caused by human-induced carbon emissions and normal weather patterns is pushing the world into uncharted territory. Within that overheating comes a deeply worrying marine heatwave off the coasts of Ireland and the UK which means sea temperatures are 4-5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year. It is classified as “extreme” by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Experts believe cleaning up sulphur from marine shipping fuels is probably adding to the greenhouse gas-driven warming, as is less Saharan dust over the ocean this year.
But what is worrying climatologists is that this trend is likely to persist – and may even get worse, as an El Niño can last for years. A critical Paris Agreement target of keeping average global temperature rise to within 1.5 degrees is likely to be breached soon, albeit temporarily.
The local threat to normally cool Irish marine ecosystems means marine plants and mammals are under stress. If the heatwave carries on through summer, it could result in mass mortalities of kelp, seagrass, fish and oysters. The bigger picture is even more concerning, as the damage caused in these hotspots is also harmful to humanity, which relies on the oceans for oxygen, food, storm protection and removal of climate-heating carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A warmer sea intensifies extreme weather such as hurricanes, storms and floods. This is happening as profound changes are already occurring in Atlantic currents, probably due to sustained warming, which could radically change Ireland’s climate.
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This is yet another indication the world is perilously close to climate tipping points. It begs the question: are current interventions to cool the world sufficient? The blunt answer is No.