The Government parties have four months in which to convince the electorate that, on the basis of their actions over the past four years, they deserve to be re-elected. It will be a hard ask, having regard to the cutbacks, additional charges and falling living standards along the way. But, they can argue: the medicine worked. Having inherited an economic shambles, they have delivered jobs and a thriving economy. For many voters, however, the bottle remains half-empty.
Having eventually decided against an autumn election, Taoiseach Enda Kenny has to deliver a positive message while ignoring the mutterings of unhappy backbenchers. His new plan appears to involve a pre-election roadshow that will concentrate on the benefits that most voters will gain from the recent budget.
Mr Kenny and Tanaiste Joan Burton are like lookouts on the bridge of a ship in the Arctic, scanning the sea for icebergs, as they speed towards a spring election. Major threats have been identified and efforts are underway to address them: health issues and hospitals, housing and homelessness, crime and punishment and continuing coalition divisions. But the threats that keep advisers awake at night are those that lurk, unidentified, nine-tenths beneath the waves.
Maintaining a positive news flow, while controlling the Dáil agenda, are necessary Government priorities. With the Finance and Social Welfare Bills likely to absorb most of the available Dáil time before Christmas, that looks doable. The opposition will, however, have many point-scoring opportunities. As happened this week, there can be no disguising the dysfunctional nature of A&E hospital services for example. The main political assault, particularly from Sinn Féin and Independents, is likely to involve the imposition of water charges and property tax.
Over the past 33 years, only three elections were held during the dank days of February. Two – in the 1980s – were won by Fianna Fáil, while the present coalition Government swept to power in 2011. Much has changed in that time: coalition governments became the norm; smaller parties emerged and the number and influence of Independent TDs has grown. That pattern is likely to persist. A vision of stability and growth offered by Government may dissipate if much-publicised internal policy differences persist and fester. If those issues are resolved – and the apparent compromise by ministers Alan Kelly and Michael Noonan on rent and housing supply issues, after weeks of acrimony, is a notable advance – the Coalition will be hoping that the benefits of the Budget could become a game-changer. But that positivity could be undermined by an impending row with the Troika – and the European Central Bank in particular – over the expansionary effects of the Budget's provisions.