Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin seems determined to persevere with his conditional life-support for the minority Government and the strategy is likely to cause great irritation on Opposition benches in the Dáil. There are solid political reasons for this.
As he admits himself, Fianna Fáil remains in recovery mode and is only gradually regaining its strength. In the circumstances, it is more beneficial for the party to influence policy from outside Cabinet under the "confidence and supply" arrangement, than to challenge Fine Gael in an election. It is all about patience and timing.
A gathering of the parliamentary party in Carlow heard carefully choreographed presentations by senior figures. The message was simple: Fianna Fáil will not cause an early election but the Government must deliver an increase in old age pensions along with rapid improvements in the areas of health, education and housing. How these developments might be funded under spending limits amounting to €1 billion was unclear. That was the Government’s problem.
It is almost impossible to straddle the divide between opposition and government. Contradictions arise. But Mr Martin has shown considerable flair, particularly on the issue of water charges. Having formally demanded their abolition and replacement by general taxation, his party will not support a Sinn Féin motion to that effect on the grounds that it amounts to “play acting”.
More interestingly, his commitment on water charges will apply to a single Dáil term, leaving open the prospect of their reintroduction later. It was not something Mr Martin envisaged happening. But the prospect of punitive EU fines for breaches of the water framework directive could change all that. Emerging dissension over the issue within Fianna Fáil could yet play a part too.
Uncertainty and the frailty of the Government was referred to by Willie O'Dea who, while insisting that Fianna Fáil will not cause an election, saw threats to its survival in the behaviour of Independent Alliance Ministers and in calls by Fine Gael backbenchers for Enda Kenny to quit the stage as Taoiseach.
Would a change of leadership in Fine Gael abrogate Mr Martin’s “confidence and supply” arrangement? Whatever about that, the Fianna Fáil leader was absolutely clear about his intention. We want, he said, “realistic, centre-ground, responsible politics”.
That sounds like a yearning for the past when Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael – mainly Fianna Fáil – led successive conservative governments. That political future would offer little space for Sinn Féin or for left-wing Independents.
An early, inconclusive election could, however, force an alliance with Sinn Féin or the less palatable option of coalition with Fine Gael. So, in the interests of the party and the country, Mr Martin is willing to let Enda Kenny lead on. For the time being, at least.