Government concerns that the referendum on marriage equality might be lost will be assuaged by the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll that shows support for the proposition holding relatively firm, with the prospect of a two-to-one majority in favour of permitting same-sex marriage a realistic outcome. The gap between the two sides has narrowed during the past two months but there is no indication of the kind of late surge required to maintain the status quo.
Appetite for constitutional change is strongest in Dublin, with women being the most supportive of same sex couples. There is a sharp urban/rural divide on the issue and the farming community strongly opposes what it regards as a diminution of the institution of marriage. Overall, however, 58 per cent of those questioned favoured the official recognition of same-sex marriage; 25 per cent were opposed while 12 per cent expressed no opinion.
The results of the survey suggest that religious beliefs and personal contact with LGBT people have had a major influence on voting intentions. Nearly three-quarters of those opposed to change considered themselves "religious" while, on the "Yes" side, fewer than half said they were "not that religious". Age also mattered. The great majority of those over 65 years described themselves as "religious", compared to 41 per cent within the 18-24 age bracket. The findings also suggest that many gay people remain in the closet in rural Ireland. While the voting intentions of 30 per cent of urban voters were influenced by personal feelings and the experience of family members or close friends, that figure fell to 17 per cent within the farming community.
Confidence in the outcome of the referendum has grown, with four-out-of-five "Yes" voters saying they can now discuss the issues openly. Strongly contrasting opinions exist on the impact of a "Yes" vote: those in favour believe it will enhance the institution of marriage while a majority of those opposed regard it as potentially damaging and are concerned about the impact on children. In spite of these concerns, the proposition attracts majority support within all political parties. It is strongest within the Labour Party – which championed the referendum – and weakest within Fianna Fáil.
The other referendum question, about reducing the age of Presidential candidates from 35 to 21 years, is facing comprehensive defeat, perhaps by a margin of three or four to one. Even members of the affected age group believe it is a bad idea. The coming referendums will offer the electorate an opportunity to shape a more egalitarian society and enhance the role of the State. The political influence of the Catholic Church, which campaigned vigorously against such change, is likely to decline further. Each to their own.