A major theme at Fine Gael's national conference last weekend was the oft repeated message, delivered by the Taoiseach and his Ministers, that Fine Gael and Labour were best placed to ensure political stability and to maintain economic growth after the next general election. Enda Kenny in his speech put it bluntly when he said voters will then "have a clear choice between stable and coherent government or chaos and instability". Mr Kenny, having ruled out coalition with either Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin, was making it clear that Fine Gael and Labour would stand on their record in government, with the people then deciding whether they had fulfilled their mandate. Fine Gael and Labour, having come so far in four years, share a common interest in finishing the journey started in 2011 together. They can do no other.
Both Fine Gael and Labour can rightly claim they have worked well in coalition, and can point to some successes, notably on the economy. In difficult times they have presided over a strong economic recovery, from a state close to collapse in 2011. Economic growth remains strong and is seen as sustainable. Employment is rising, unemployment is falling and the public finances continue to improve. Nevertheless, both Fine Gael and Labour poll ratings remain low and, as they face an election within a year or so, time is not on the coalition’s side in regaining the public’s confidence, and winning back lost public support.
For Labour the challenge is how to distinguish itself from Fine Gael, without destabilising the coalition, and impairing Labour’s own record of achievement in office. In 1987, Labour left government following disagreement on economic policy, and sought to re-establish a separate party identity – but to little avail. Shortly after, the party lost one quarter of its seats, and shed more than a quarter of its votes. The advantages and difficulties that a minority party in coalition encounters are well known. In government, the junior partner secures a disproportionate share of cabinet seats, relative to its parliamentary strength.
This ministerial premium is the price paid by the major partner to seal a coalition agreement. But in times of economic adversity, the smaller party all too often becomes the popular scapegoat. Invariably, it incurs a disproportionate share of the public’s blame for the government’s overall performance. In the UK, the Liberal Democrats, since breaking their pre-election pledge to oppose increases in student tuition fees, have never recovered in the polls. And Labour’s pre-election promises exceeded what it could later deliver in government.
Realistically, both Fine Gael and Labour accept that hanging together for another 12 months – and waiting for an improving economy to boost party ratings – remains a far better option than hanging separately.