Ireland came close to catastrophe 30 years ago in ways unsuspected by most of us who were around then.
That is the sobering significance of the 1974 Cabinet papers released in the last few days. Usually the annual release of such papers after 30 years is the occasion of mild curiosity. These papers are shocking.
Of course we heard at the time of the possibility of British withdrawal from Northern Ireland and the Sunday Times was always banging on about repartition. But most of us thought these prospects were for the birds. The British would never leave peremptorily and repartition was such an obvious recipe for disaster that it was inconceivable it would be considered seriously. But it now emerges that the Wilson government in 1974 was seriously considering both options with, apparently, little regard for the awful consequences.
Garret FitzGerald said on RTÉ's programme on the papers on Sunday night that the then Fine Gael-Labour government feared the British might be thinking of withdrawal but had no knowledge of the seriousness with which the option was being considered.
Nobody thought the British would go quickly leaving an independent Northern Ireland in chaos and conflict. The consequences then would have been disastrous. A local militia would have been recruited to fight the IRA and the loss of lives would have run into the thousands in a few months, inevitably with the engagement in some form of the southern state.
The lives of all of us would have been very different,very much more awful.
Repartition also would have been a nightmare. The nationalist population of Belfast would not have left voluntarily, the IRA would have fought, again there would have been massive loss of life, and again, almost certainly, the engagement of the southern state. It would have been the ultimate British perfidy. Having created the tinder-box of Northern Ireland, having allowed it to fester for 50 years with discrimination and repression, having failed to reform the State adequately, having witnessed the outbreak of conflict and then to have walked away, leaving Ireland to its own inadequate devices, would have been an act of historic treachery.
There was a madness on the part of the IRA at the time which held that the unionists would "come to their senses" once the British left. The reality was that the unionists believed then (and very probably now) that left on their own they would have and could have "sorted out" the "problem" of a disaffected nationalist minority. And they would have done that with a violence and repression on a far greater scale than previously deployed. There would have been war long before anyone "came to their senses".
I confess I myself was nonchalant about prospects then. I believed the IRA campaign would continue for a few more years after which the British would agree to something along the lines of a long-term commitment to Irish unification but only on terms acceptable to a majority in Northern Ireland.
I thought this would lead to some sort of messy compromise, after which we would all live happily ever after. Not for a moment did I - or I believe did most others - think we were on the precipice of a catastrophe.
No one would have wished the catastrophe to happen, which is very different from maintaining it would not have happened. Nobody expected the Irish Civil War to last as it did or be as bloody as it was, or wanted it that way. No one expected the conflict in Yugoslavia to be as horrendous. No one expected the first World War to last beyond a few months. We could so easily have drifted into disaster. We owe a debt of gratitude to the likes of Gerry Fitt, John Hume, Austin Currie, Liam Cosgrave, Garret FitzGerald and, yes, Conor Cruise O'Brien, along with officials in the Department of Foreign Affairs, notably Seán Donlon, for having helped avoid that calamity.
The papers also reveal concerted vested- interest opposition to a wealth tax, a measure that would have ensured that the wealthy would have paid somewhere near their fair contribution in taxation. As with the residential property tax introduced nearly 20 years later, the wealth tax was wildly misrepresented and its effects exaggerated. RTÉ joined in the battle to undermine it, as it was crucial in the withdrawal of the residential property tax, and the wealthy got off. Again.
The insight the papers give into the controversy over contraception are hilarious. I recall being in the press gallery of the Dáil the night the Bill was defeated. When the roll call was announced, TDs went towards the yes and no lobbies. Liam Cosgrave was one of the last to leave his seat and he was accompanied, almost arm in arm, by Dick Burke, Minister for Education. They waked up the middle aisle of the Dáil and then turned right into the no lobby with jubilant Fianna Fáil deputies.
One Fine Gael TD, who had not yet made up his mind on how to vote, clambered up on the Labour benches to see which way Cosgrave had gone. Once he saw what had happened he skipped up the stairs also into the no lobby to register his principled opposition.