The tortuous talks on Brexit, which are now entering a critical stage, contain uncanny echoes of the events of a century ago that reshaped the continent of Europe. One of the threads that links past and present is the Irish Border, which had its origins in the great political controversy over Home Rule that dominated politics in Ireland and Britain on the eve of the first World War.
Back in the summer of 1914 in an effort to avert a political crisis that threatened to unleash a civil war across the United Kingdom, King George V convened a conference of British and Irish political leaders at Buckingham Palace. One of the big issues was whether some counties of Ulster should be excluded on a temporary basis from the remit of an Irish parliament and if so which ones.
It looks at times as if Conservative hardliners have again hijacked British policy
On July 22nd, a month after the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo, as Europe lurched unwittingly towards war, prime minister Herbert Asquith wrote to his confidant Venetia Stanley after a wearying day of negotiations.
“We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man – the County of Tyrone,” wrote an exasperated Asquith. He then went on to put his finger on the core of the problem which still has resonance today.
“I have rarely felt more hopeless in any practical affair: an impasse with unspeakable consequences upon a matter which to English eyes seems inconceivably small and to Irish eyes immeasurably big. Isn’t it a real tragedy.”
There could hardly be a better description of the relative significance of the Border backstop to the politicians of the two countries today. For UK politicians the Irish Border did not feature at all as an issue in the Brexit referendum campaign and until a few months ago was regarded as an irritating irrelevance in the exit talks.
Mutually acceptable
It is only recently that the realisation has begun to dawn that the Border could scupper the prospect of an orderly Brexit or, alternatively, stop Brexit in its tracks. The question now is whether the political leaders of Ireland and the UK will fail again to come up with a mutually acceptable solution as they did more than 100 years ago.
Now as then it is clearly in the interests of both sides to find a compromise but it looks at times as if Conservative hardliners have again hijacked British policy. On the Irish side, the Government faces the danger of elevating the backstop to an issue of principle, on which compromise becomes impossible, rather than a tactic designed to force the best outcome.
The conciliatory tone adopted by Tánaiste Simon Coveney this week, emphasising the temporary nature of the backstop, is certainly a help. “I think we’re in the space of trying to provide clarification that temporary means temporary and that Geoffrey Cox [the UK attorney general] and others can recommend to their parliament that they won’t be trapped against their will indefinitely,” he said.
The question, though, is whether Cox will be in a position to give such advice to parliament, having said the opposite only a few months ago, and, even if he does will enough MPs believe him. Cox was in Brussels over the past two days for talks with Michel Barnier and the outcome will be crucial.
The nub of the issue now seems to be finding a mutually acceptable wording on the arbitration mechanism to ensure that the UK is not trapped in the backstop indefinitely in the event of a breakdown in the trade talks that will follow the withdrawal agreement.
To most people all of this must appear every bit as abstruse as the borders of Tyrone did to Asquith in 1914. From an Irish point of view, the big difference from 100 years ago is that we have the support of our “gallant allies” in Europe. This has certainly been critical in forcing the British to face the reality of Brexit, not just on the Border question but on the whole question of its future relationship with its neighbours.
European project
The EU negotiating stance led by the hugely impressive Barnier has reinforced the already strong commitment of the Irish public to the European project. The latest Eurobarometer poll shows just how much impact this has had. A whopping 76 per cent of Irish people say their interests are taken into account by the EU.
This is the highest proportion of people in any member state taking such a view and it is matched by 70 per cent of Irish people rejecting the notion that the country could do better outside the EU. The positive image of the EU is far higher in Ireland than any other member state and there is now a strong sense of EU citizenship here.
All of this illustrates the level of respect the EU authorities now have with the Irish public. The political capital generated by the way the EU has handled the whole process means that the Government in Dublin will have political cover to follow whatever recommendation Barnier makes and agree to a realistic compromise with the UK if one becomes available.