The M50, which was opened in sections between 1990 and June 2005, achieved full completion just before a major capacity expansion scheme began in 2006. This project, which involved widening sections and upgrading key interchanges, cost €950 million and was finished by 2010.
In the same 1990-2010 period, the complementary public transport infrastructure – the Luas Red and Green lines and initial DART expansion – was delivered.
Have the road and public transport networks kept pace with the roughly 20 per cent population increase in the Greater Dublin Area? The overwhelming answer, felt daily by anybody travelling into or around the capital, is a resounding no.
Congestion on the M50 serves as an inescapable reminder that our existing infrastructure is no longer fit for purpose. Its failure affects not just Dublin but the entire national logistics and commerce framework, as it connects the country’s main port, airport and all primary interurban routes.
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This chronic infrastructure deficit is having a profound and measurable impact on the national economy as well as on our collective quality of life and personal wellbeing – contributing to stress, emissions and reduced family time.
The congestion is inextricably linked to the housing crisis. The prohibitive cost of urban housing has pushed many commuters further away from their places of employment in Dublin into surrounding counties.
In the absence of adequate public transport connectivity, the private car has become the default – and often the only – viable transport option. The most recent National Transport Authority (NTA) household travel survey, which revealed that 71 per cent of all trips made in Ireland are undertaken by car – the highest percentage recorded in the survey’s history.
Transit-oriented development (TOD) is frequently championed as a key solution. This model, which integrates dense residential and commercial areas around high-capacity public transport, has proven successful globally in creating sustainable communities.
[ No quick fix for ‘tiresome’ M50 gridlock, Minister says ]
However, Ireland’s implementation often falls short. An example of this policy disconnect is the recent announcement postponing the DART+ South West line until at least the next decade.
This delay was announced just one day after planning permission was granted for almost 900 new housing units in Adamstown, Co Dublin. This lack of co-ordinated planning means these residential developments will inevitably come online years before the essential DART service is operational, guaranteeing a surge in new car-dependent commuters.
If Ireland is to stand any realistic chance of meeting its legally binding transport emissions targets outlined in the Climate Action Plan, large-scale public transport projects must be built.
Yet, at our pace of delivery, the kind of projects that would meaningfully reduce traffic gridlock and shift modal share may not be operational for at least another decade, making our climate goals functionally unattainable.
Does the answer lie in more roads? Traffic modelling features a concept known as “induced demand”. This principle dictates that when a new road is built, or an existing one is widened, the initial reduction in travel time eventually encourages more people to drive, leading to traffic volumes returning to – or exceeding – prior congested levels.
An outer orbital M50 or an Eastern Bypass have been discussed as solutions. The Eastern Bypass, for example, could take 15 to 20 years in planning and construction, fly directly in the face of climate targets and would not achieve the necessary modal shift away from the private car and have severe biodiversity impacts. Not to mention that it would cost billions of euro.
Some relief for the M50 could be achieved by some strategic routes alleviating traffic on an outer orbital basis. While this would also inevitably increase our emissions, a detailed study could be conducted to see if these increased emissions could be offset by a decrease in emissions on the M50 or whether the problem is simply redistributed.
But continuing to build more roads to alleviate congestion, especially in a geographically constrained city such as Dublin, is precisely the kind of failed thinking that has resulted in our capital becoming the 10th most congested city in the world. We need only look at cities such as Los Angeles to see the ultimate impact of increased motorway construction.
Could an artificial intelligence (AI) or advanced digital solution save the M50? Transport Infrastructure Ireland (TII) has already exhausted nearly every available trick in the book. The introduction of variable speed limits provided some initial, temporary relief. However, as traffic volumes continue to increase, this system has proven inadequate to mitigate the overall rise in demand.
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One other alternative, which is highly politically unpalatable, is the introduction of distance-based tolling or other congestion charges. Indeed, back in 2014, when daily traffic volumes were 30 per cent less than today, a TII report said: “The study showed clearly that fiscal measures had by far the most significant impact on managing the future demand on the M50.” Varying the M50 toll based on distance or time of day could regulate demand better, but this requires a major policy shift and immense political courage to implement.
For the short run (solutions deliverable before 2030), the focus must be on practical and achievable steps. These must include more bus-based park-and-ride sites to be constructed at M50 entry points, delivering quicker city-centre travel times via existing bus lanes.
Increased working from home must be another part of the solution. Since the pandemic, the shift to remote working has resulted in a decrease in morning commuters, and arguably without it the current standstill on the M50 could have happened an awful lot sooner.
Better responses to collisions could alleviate congestion caused by the almost 700 crashes that happen on the motorway each year by reducing the duration of blockages.
These solutions may seem unambitious, but they are realistic targets for the near future. One thing is clear: current policy is failing, so much more radical ambition is required – particularly in co-ordinating housing and transport.
Brian Caulfield is professor in transportation at the Centre for Transport Research, Trinity College Dublin
