This week Fox News, that bastion of truth, claimed that violent crime in Dublin is surging. Armed with a ‘statistic’ that murders and assaults were up 114 per cent, the American broadcaster reported that Dublin is fast becoming one of the most dangerous cities in Europe and that Ireland is rapidly descending into violence. Not for the first time, the Fox report and statistics are untrue, but why let the truth get in the way of a good story, particularly when it feeds into a general sense that violent crime is on the rise?
The idea that our cities are descending into apocalyptic criminal hellholes is becoming common across the western world, fed by social media and our evolutionary psychological bias towards putting more weight on news that might threaten us, rather than news that reassures. As they say in the fictional TV newsrooms, “If it bleeds, it leads.” Ireland is not alone. A recent article in the Financial Times highlighted the paradox of people in the UK feeling less safe despite the fact that the society is actually becoming safer.
The truth is that violent crime has rarely been lower in Dublin specifically and Ireland in general, yet people feel that the place has become far more dangerous. Perception is everything – and once that perception becomes embedded, it can quickly become gospel, with seriously negative consequences for the city and the country.
Before we consider the bad news, let’s digest the good news.
Despite people’s heightened fears, violent crime in Ireland has fallen dramatically over the past two decades. Ireland is a much safer country now than it was during the Celtic Tiger years, with crime on a downward trajectory since peaking in 2008. Garda reports indicate that crime in 2024 was far below the mid-2000s even though the population grew by over a third.
Even in the past few years Ireland has become safer. Overall, offences were 7 per cent lower last year than in 2019. Last year, murders hit a multi-decade low of 77, down 13 per cent from 2023. Robbery, extortion and hijacking offences declined by 10 per cent in 2024 from the previous year, and burglary has plummeted over the past decade.
Residential break-ins have fallen by an astounding 75 per cent over 10 years. By early 2025, Ireland was averaging fewer than one residential burglary per county per day; while it’s awful for individual victims, it’s an extraordinarily low rate. Recorded drug crimes fell by 7 per cent in 2024, continuing a longer slide (down 30 per cent since 2020).
Weapons and explosives offences remain relatively rare and the incidence of serious assaults is far below earlier peaks. The Garda Commissioner’s latest report highlights that “Ireland has recorded a 7 per cent reduction in crime (2024 vs 2019) while undergoing a 9.3 per cent increase in population, and a far greater reduction compared to 2002”. This is a striking success story by international standards, one that holds true across much of the serious crime spectrum.
Now a cynic might say, ‘Well they would say that, wouldn’t they?’ But these are the facts. Furthermore, Irish people still place enormous trust in the gardaí. A huge 89 per cent of Irish adults trust the gardaí – one of the highest confidence levels in police forces in Europe – while a solid majority (73 per cent) are satisfied with local police services. And despite the recent scares, over half of people report having none or very few fears about crime in their daily lives. Around 42 per cent “do not worry” about becoming a victim at all, and most say fear of crime has little impact on their quality of life. These figures suggest a general sense of security in communities, consistent with the low crime rates Ireland actually enjoys.
Even though serious violent crime has been falling consistently, the rise of in-your-face, out-in-the-open offences is a massive problem for the State
But here is where things start to get tricky. When you ask people are they personally threatened by crime in their daily lives, in our own back yard so to speak, over half of us respond that we are not; but when you ask us is there lots of violence “out there”, we change our tune. There is a persistent belief that crime is a serious national problem. Seventy-two per cent of survey respondents in 2023 said that crime nationally was a “serious” or “very serious” issue, even though only 37 per cent said crime was much of a problem in their local area.
How do we explain this gap? What is driving the disparity between what is actually happening to violent crime rates and what people feel? And what is behind the divergence between what people think about their chances of becoming a victim of crime, which is low, contrasted with their sense of crime in general, which is high?
A significant reason is the dramatic rise in what might be called ‘in-your-face’ crimes as opposed to behind-closed-doors or ‘secret’ crimes. Almost all murders are secret crimes, carried out in private, and usually involving people who know each other. Murders are rarely random, but almost always covered up. As a result, a fall in the murder rate doesn’t impact the mood of the general public as much as we would expect.
However, a rise in these ‘in-your-face’ crimes – such as shoplifting, bicycle theft, drunken fights after closing time or young lads in balaclavas acting menacingly on the street, these visible threats – profoundly affects people’s general sense of security. On top of this is the viral nature of social media. When someone is filming an ‘in-your-face’ crime, such as a lad brazenly shoplifting, everyone can see it once it is uploaded and shared on social media. In the past, even these ‘out-in-the-open’ crimes weren’t viewed by that many people, but today we all see it online.
And while violent crime has fallen, petty crimes have exploded in Ireland. In 2022, as the pandemic restrictions eased, thefts from shops jumped by 41 per cent. About 53 per cent of retail theft cases are groceries, fuel or other essentials. By 2024, shoplifting reached its highest level on record, with more than 33,000 thefts from shops reported – more than double the number two decades earlier. Dublin in particular has seen a wave of high-profile store thefts and brazen daytime shop robberies, heightening public alarm. Once captured on video and shared, people panic. Public disorder is more prevalent – and more noticed.
[ Retail crime pushing up prices for consumers, Oireachtas committee hearsOpens in new window ]
Garda data show public order offences (like street fights, drunken misconduct, harassment of passers-by) rose by 5 per cent nationally in 2024, but by 13 per cent in Dublin city. Assaults and menacing behaviour on city streets, lots of it drug related, have made many residents feel that urban centres are less safe than before. While overall crime has fallen, the type of crime or the mix of crime has changed, with more petty assaults and other random transgressions.
The thing about petty crime is it isn’t that petty if you are the victim. If you are the one getting your phone stolen in broad daylight, or your wallet with your cards lifted on the Luas, or your bicycle taken and lock smashed, it will affect you, change you, in many cases permanently. Your sense of justice is affected, your sense of personal security might not recover, your anxiety and anger levels increase.
[ Public order gardaí reluctant to use force due to lack of numbers, report findsOpens in new window ]
More to the point, if this could happen to you, your friends and family conclude, it could happen to anyone, spreading a general sense of trepidation. If there is a feeling that criminals are getting away with it because prosecution rates are falling or many small-scale violations and delinquent behaviour aren’t even being reported, it’s very easy for the general public to believe the capital city is “out of control”.
Even though serious violent crime has been falling consistently, the rise of in-your-face, out-in-the-open offences is a massive problem for the State. It can’t be underestimated or downplayed. We are not alone. Almost every western country is experiencing similar trends. For any country, losing the battle against day-to-day crime in people’s heads is as important as winning the battle against serious crime in people’s day-to-day lives.
The trends are not encouraging and the political fallout of failure is incalculable.
