There were extraordinary scenes at the United Nations in New York this week, when the United States sided with Russia on resolutions regarding the war in Ukraine. First, in the General Assembly, the US aligned with Russia in voting against a resolution which condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A couple of hours later in the Security Council, the US voted together with China and Russia for its own resolution which urged peace between the two, but fell short of censuring Russia’s violation of Ukrainian sovereignty and international law. There was widespread whiplash among European states at the volte-face in the American position on this issue.
The recent reported agreement between Ukraine and the US on minerals is the strongest indication yet that transatlantic security relations are now based on realpolitik.
For Ireland, the debate about our military neutrality and the triple-lock mechanism must take place in the context of this new world order.
Ireland adheres to a policy of triple lock on our Defence Forces which means that no more than 12 troops can be deployed overseas without approval from the Dáil, the Government and the UN Security Council. This policy – which gave the UN procedural oversight of where and how many Irish forces can be sent to perform peacekeeping duties – is now under review, with Tánaiste and Minister for Defence Simon Harris set to bring proposals for changing the triple lock to Cabinet next month.
In reality, the situation is increasingly out of step with the reality of the changing international situation and the political clout Ireland wields abroad, through both its peacekeeping and its diplomacy.
While we remained insulated by the security provided by European partners, within a world order guaranteed by the US, this situation was sustainable. However, coupled with the recent statements of US vice-president JD Vance to EU leaders, it is evident that for the first time since 1945, Europe needs to develop a stronger security system which does not rely on American support. This is an entirely new context in which to consider Ireland’s defence capacities, and what we can do to strengthen our multilateral relationships. This question also has a considerable impact on the future of the UN.
Ireland needs to forge a multilateral strategy that, for the first time in our history, is not conducted vis-à-vis either the UK (no longer an EU member) or the US. This means putting the question of who provides our security at the centre of debates about neutrality
The organisation is facing an unprecedented crisis, in which the US role has moved from one of mild obstructionism to outright hostility. The recent votes are particularly problematic for its long-term outlook. From being paralysed in the last few years, the Security Council has now been used against the organisation itself. By siding with China and Russia on Ukraine, the US has given the signal that it is not willing to defend the core principles of the UN, the sanctity of sovereignty and the basic values of international law. With three of the Permanent Five members coalescing around this position, it further reduces the capacity of the UN to defend the principles and values of a multilateral system based on the rule of law and protection of human rights.
In this context, the role of small and medium powers becomes even more important. During Monday’s Security Council vote in the General Assembly, a majority of states voted for the European proposal urging support for Ukraine. But in the Security Council itself, all of the current five European members (Denmark, France, Greece, Slovenia and the United Kingdom) abstained. Essentially this reflects that while there is growing unity in the European position, there is only strength in numbers. Ireland was on the winning side of the General Assembly debate, having voted for the resolution on Ukraine. However, votes of this kind – and the wider diplomacy and deal-making that go along with them – are increasingly significant if the US is no longer willing to defend sovereignty and international law, nor condemn transgressions. Ireland must maximise its agency in multilateral settings, and cannot be subject to the veto power in a setting such as the current constellation at the Security Council where this power can be used to the detriment of our core values. Rather, strengthening our position will help to make the UN more robust and resilient against these internal pressures.
[ Proposals to change triple lock potentially ‘very dangerous’ – Sinn FéinOpens in new window ]
Ireland needs to forge a multilateral strategy that, for the first time in our history, is not conducted vis-a-vis either the UK (no longer an EU member) or the US. This means putting the question of who provides our security at the centre of debates about neutrality. Given that there is a real prospect of peacekeepers in Europe as part of any peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, Ireland’s security status must be clear and unequivocal.
The stakes for the whole debate about the triple lock and Ireland’s multilateralism have changed entirely since the then government held its forum on this issue in 2023. Ireland no longer has the luxury of teetering between political and military neutrality. With the EU and the US increasingly at odds, we must take every means to strengthen our agency. This means crafting a clearer position on key global issues, rather than hiding behind ambivalent rhetoric. Fundamental to this is the exercise of full control over the deployment of our troops. In practice, this means scrapping the triple lock. Failure to do so in the current geopolitical environment would leave Ireland caught in a paradox. It would mean we were unable to back up verbose statements of support for the UN and international law with actual participation in a system that is now based more on hard power than ideology.
With the continent’s security increasingly under threat, we must abandon the fallacy that neutrality will isolate us from impending conflict. The reality is that the country is already closely integrated in an interdependent international system that is at breaking point. If we don’t seize this chance to take a more dynamic role, utilise our Defence Forces to more actively protect global peace through the UN and participate meaningfully in the looming debates about European defence, the costs will be profound.
Alanna O’Malley is associate professor at the Leiden University Institute for History
