The Hamas attacks on Israel of recent days have taken everyone by surprise, not least the Israeli security and intelligence apparatus. However, while the nature and precise timing of the Hamas-led assault in southern Israel may have seemed unexpected, the fact of its happening is less so, in the context of the social and economic crises that characterise the Occupied Palestinian Territories in general, and Gaza in particular.
It’s unlikely to be a coincidence that the attacks began 50 years and one day after the Yom Kippur war of 1973 in which Egypt and Syria launched a surprise attack on Israel, and which is seen by many as having undermined Israeli faith in its military capacity and paved the way for the Israeli-Palestinian “peace process”. The 1973 war in part, at least, represented an attempt by Egypt to demonstrate that the status quo was unsustainable. It may be that the events of the past several days constitute an attempt by Hamas to do something similar.
The attacks are shocking in nature as are the casualty levels. However, they emerge from a broad-based sense of hopelessness on the part of Palestinians and the apparent absence of prospects for meaningful change.
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The statistics are as shocking as they are familiar – just under 50 per cent of the total Palestinian population are in need of humanitarian assistance. In Gaza, which has been subjected to a blockade since 2007, that figure increases to 80 per cent. Unemployment is rife and there is no freedom of movement. Israel prohibits Palestinians from leaving or entering Gaza except in extremely rare cases. In July of this year, Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, likened the situation to an “open-air prison”, a charge inevitably denied by Israel.
Compounding the situation is the lack of any indication of movement on political change. The Palestinian Authority, under the elderly Mahmoud Abbas, has lost credibility in the West Bank and seems unable to represent Palestinian aspirations effectively.
Normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would constitute a significant prize for those involved. How much it would advance the interests of Palestinians is a different matter
The authority has been outflanked by recent developments in the region which have seen a number of Arab states “normalise” relations with Israel, something that would have been considered unthinkable in previous decades. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco normalised ties in a deal that was brokered by then US president, Donald Trump. Since then, the focus has turned to Saudi Arabia, whose controversial Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman has made no secret of his desire to follow suit.
Saudi Arabia has never recognised Israel since it was created in 1948. Normalisation of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia would constitute a significant prize for those involved. However, how much it would advance the interests of Palestinians is a different matter. The Saudis have been willing to discuss recognition in return for a number of concessions from both the United States and Israel. From the US, they have sought advanced weaponry as well as support for a civil nuclear programme.
Bin Salman has also sought to argue that the Palestinian question is at the heart of negotiations with Israel, and senior Palestinian figures have met Saudi officials in Riyadh to present their minimum demands. These include a complete cessation of Israeli settlement building on the West Bank and a resumption of US-sponsored negotiations with Israel. However, their demands fall well short of previous calls for a rejection of any Saudi-Israeli deal that does not result in an independent Palestinian state.
A deal would burnish Bin Salman’s reputation following the Saudi role in the 2018 murder of dissident Jamal Khashoggi and the failures of the Saudi-led war in Yemen. Any such deal would also greatly enhance the position of Israeli prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, beset, as he has been for years, by charges of corruption, and in power with the most hard-line and right-wing elements in Israeli political life.
Normalisation of ties would also represent a major foreign policy prize for Joe Biden, as he heads into the election year in the US. For many Palestinians, however, the regional and international manoeuvring has less to do with Palestinian needs and aspirations and more to do with the ambitions of those involved.
In any case, the attacks of recent days threaten this outcome, at least in the medium term. Inevitably, the Israeli response will be to deploy its superior military capabilities, entailing a large toll of human casualties and wholesale destruction.
There will be a short-term rallying around Netanyahu’s government in response to the attacks. Military reservists, who had vowed not to report for duty in response to judicial reforms that have aroused widespread opposition in Israel and are seen as deeply threatening to the democratic character of the state, have reversed their position. Opposition leaders have vowed their support for the government’s response to Hamas.
Israel prohibits Palestinians from leaving or entering Gaza except in extremely rare cases. Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur on human rights in the Occupied Palestinian Territories, likened the situation to an ‘open-air prison’
However, these events have also exposed Israeli vulnerabilities that may have longer-term consequences for Netanyahu. The intelligence and military failings that preceded the attack on Israel – the failure to anticipate a mobilisation on the part of Hamas militants on a scale that has simply not been seen before, right on the border with Israel – undermines Netanyahu’s promise that he, and his government, can provide security for Israelis. This promise has been central to his entire political career and has already been threatened by a series of scandals.
In addition, while negotiations with Saudi Arabia on normalisation are at an advanced stage, any deal will require concessions on Palestine, however limited, that right-wing elements in his governing coalition were extremely unlikely to countenance before the recent attacks and will certainly not support now. It is equally unlikely that any of the more centrist Israeli opposition to Netanyahu’s government will come to his rescue to support a deal.
While the human cost of the Hamas attacks will be felt by Israelis and Palestinians, their broader impact may be felt much further afield.
Dr Vincent Durac lectures in Middle East politics in the UCD school of politics and international relations