The number of nominee-picking delegates to be won on Tuesday in Wisconsin may not be huge, but the momentum will prove crucial to determining how long more the Republican and Democratic presidential races will last.
The two frontrunners, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, are trailing in the polls in Wisconsin and the scale of their defeats in the midwestern state, if the polls are accurate, will likely decide whether the races will be won by the end of state-by-state first round of ballots in early June or the party conventions in the second half of July.
Clinton holds a lead of 263 pledged delegates over Vermont senator Bernie Sanders.
Leaving aside the commanding lead she holds among “super-delegate” party leaders and elected officials, the former first lady edges the democratic socialist by 1,243 to 980 in the race to the 2,383-delegate finish line.
Wisconsin's Democratic primary has 86 delegates up for grabs. That's not enough for Sanders to close Clinton's lead, but the buzz of a victory in Wisconsin and another in Wyoming (14 delegates) in Saturday's caucuses – on the back of winning five of the last six states – could help Sanders heading to New York on April 19th where there are 247 delegates at stake.
Sanders has an average three-point lead in Wisconsin, while Clinton has an 11-point lead in her home electoral state of New York.
These figures, if replicated in actual voting, will confirm Clinton’s inevitability as the Democratic nominee in November’s election.
Contested convention
How Wisconsin votes will give better clues on whether the Republicans are headed to a contested convention in Cleveland in July.
Trump is trailing Texas senator Ted Cruz in the polls in the Badger State, though he has a 273-delegate lead over Cruz (736 to 463) in the overall race to 1,237.
Trump has a 32-point lead in his home state of New York but should Cruz take all of Wisconsin’s 42 delegates, the billionaire would need to win 56 per cent of the delegates from the remaining 17 states.
That would leave him with an uphill climb to win the nomination before state voting ends on June 7th and avoid facing a strong anti-Trump faction at a contested convention.