The second qualifying round in the US presidential race ended with runaway victories for Democrat Bernie Sanders, the socialist Vermont senator, and Republican Donald J Trump, the New York billionaire.
Anyone who dismissed Sanders as a fringe political outsider and Trump as a narcissistic circus act will, after New Hampshire, be taking their "revolutions" far more seriously. The winners in this New England state were the insurgents, the losers the establishment.
America is angry and the electorate has lurched to the flanks in search of villains: billionaires and Wall Street speculators on the left, and immigrants and foreign countries on the right. Trump and Sanders have prospered in these extremes, harnessing new political forces where the establishment has fallen short in addressing fears and anxieties.
Trump trounced the crowded Republican field with 35 per cent of a record-breaking vote, more than double his closest opponent. His win, outperforming some of his leads in recent polls, was the biggest in a New Hampshire Republican primary in 16 years.
Exit polls showed that two-thirds of New Hampshire Republicans back Trump’s proposal to ban Muslims from entering the US, proving that his wild plans are not just high-decibel rhetoric to grab headlines.
Sanders decisively defeated Hillary Clinton, the once presumed Democratic nominee, showing that the Brooklyn native is far from the protest candidate he was written off as eight months ago. He beat the most establishment figure in American politics – a former first lady, senator and secretary of state – by a near 22-point margin, the biggest win yet by a Democrat in a New Hampshire primary.
“What the people here have said is given the enormous crises facing out country, it is just too late for the same old, same old establishment politics and establishment economics,” Sanders told his supporters, explaining his win in a “yuge” turnout. “The people want real change.”
Clinton, in her concession speech, acknowledged the hill she never expected to have to climb to reach the nomination. “I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people,” she said.
However it doesn’t end with the youth. Sanders, the first Jewish candidate to win a presidential primary, beat Clinton in every demographic group except for wealthy families and old voters. He even won a majority of women. Clinton scored strongly on electability and experience but tanked on questions of trustworthiness and honesty, raising deeper questions around her “historic” candidacy.
Clinton's eked-out win in Iowa and resounding loss in New Hampshire means Sanders could run the Democratic primary all the way to the party's convention in July, potentially weakening her for the eventual face-off with a Republican.
She has already locked in the support of super-delegates who play an influential role in picking the nominee and has strong support among the many Hispanic and African-Americans in the next early-voting states in the south and west.
Sanders, with this in mind, moved quickly, holding an impromptu fundraiser in his victory speech to call for more grassroots money from "across America" to top up his war chest. Desperate for more African-American support, he met the Rev Al Sharpton for breakfast in the famous Sylvia's Restaurant in Harlem, New York, on Wednesday.
John Kasich
New Hampshire's other big winner was Ohio governor John Kasich, whose folksy style, positive message and cross-party appeal won over moderate Republicans and floating voters who account for four in 10 voters in the independently minded northeastern state. He surged to a strong second-place finish of 16 per cent, adding a new name to the long list of potential Republican nominees.
"Tonight the light overcame the darkness," said Kasich, who refused to stoop to the name-calling and vitriol dominating his party's race.The challenge for the two-term governor is whether he will be able to build momentum and raise much-needed funds to challenge in South Carolina and Nevada, the southern and western states up next.
The results were just about the worst possible outcome for the Republican Party. Rather that reducing the number of competitors and picking a centrist alternative to Trump and conservative gadfly Texas senator Ted Cruz, New Hampshire added another contender, jamming up the party's establishment lane with three potential nominees.
Trump’s rout will refuel his populist juggernaut as the race heads south where the businessman’s celebrity appeal will continue to hurt establishment candidates and where Cruz, who was first in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, will feature strongly again.
The big Republican loser was Florida senator Marco Rubio, the preferred mainstream candidate after his surprise third-place finish in Iowa. He fell to a disappointing fifth with 10.5 per cent of the vote, falling behind Jeb Bush in fourth place with 11 per cent. The resurgent former Florida governor has the plenty of cash money and, after New Hampshire, enough support to prolong his challenge.
Rubio (44) put his decline down to his performance in the final debate before the polls when New Jersey governor Chris Christie (likely to be one of the few casualties out of New Hampshire) hammered him for robotically repeating canned lines from the stock stump speech. The attack exposed him to charges of lacking depth and experience.
“Our disappointment tonight is not on you – it’s on me,” the senator told supporters at his primary night party. “I did not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this: that will never happen again.”
Down but not out, Rubio, like too many other Republicans, is still in play and shows how New Hampshire’s reprimand of the rattled elites is turning this intriguing presidential contest into a long, hard battle.