The Government needs to prepare for the potentially "massively destabilising" effect of Britain leaving the European Union, former head of the ESRI John FitzGerald has said.
Success for the leave campaign will have an economic impact on Ireland but the “big issue” for the authorities here is Northern Ireland, Mr Fitzgerald said.
Addressing a breakfast event in Dublin, the economist said if Britain leaves the EU, Ireland could automatically join Europe’s Schengen free travel zone and will have to place entry barriers along the Border with the North.
Ireland currently enjoys a joint opt-out of Schengen with Britain and if Brexit comes to pass Irish ministers will need to travel to negotiate with Europe a way of keeping the Border open, Mr FitzgGerald, who is also a columnist with the Irish Times, said.
Economically, he added, Irish interests must be represented in any post-Brexit negotiations. If, for example, Britain agrees a way to maintain access to the single market, Ireland will want to ensure that part of that agreement includes the free movement of agricultural produce across these islands.
Other concerns include the possible disruption of Ireland and the UK’s joint electricity market and whether a non-EU Britain will opt in to Europe’s climate change regime or whether it will go its own way.
But, he continued, Irish negotiators will face a challenge getting the attention of the UK because the country will likely be involved in new trade negotiations with countries such as the United States, Japan and Mexico.
Mr FitzGerald was speaking at an Irish Times business “Insights” event where the newspaper’s London editor Denis Staunton said both sides of the Brexit debate seem to be pessimistic about their chances in the June 23rd referendum.
“More or less anybody that anybody has ever heard of in authority says ‘don’t leave the union’,” he said. But while the polls – and bookies – still point towards a vitcory for remain, the leave side has far more energy and enthusiasm.
With Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland likely to vote to remain in the EU, England will be the main battleground in the referendum, he said. “You would have to be a bit nervous if you were on the remain side,” he added.
