The UK Independence Party will win the largest vote in the European Parliament elections in tomorrow's count and take seats in the House of Commons elections next year, says party leader Nigel Farage.
His declaration came on the back of a strong performance in the local elections outside of London, including a series of gains on councils in the east of England and Essex, where the party has been attracting support.
On the back of a 17 per cent share of the vote, Ukip gained more than 100 council seats – though this is actually less than the 23 per cent share the party won last year, though London – never a Ukip stronghold – did not have elections then.
Four years of progress However, the key comparison is between the results yesterday and the results in 2010 when the same 4,000 seats were up for grabs in local authorities around England. Back then, Ukip took just two seats.
For now, the Conservatives have managed to stay relatively united in the face of Ukip gains, hoping that many of those who voted for Ukip can be won back with the pledge of an EU membership referendum in 2017.
Labour did exceptionally well in London, seizing control of Hammersmith and Fulham from the Conservatives, and in Redbridge and Croydon, with gains in Haringey, but the results in the so-called M25 belt around London were not as good.
However, some Labour MPs have privately and publicly begun to question Labour leader Ed Miliband’s strategy since Labour would have expected to have made far greater gains on councils at this stage in the electoral cycle.
Labour MP John Mann complained that the Labour leadership followed “a disastrous strategy” by trying to ignore Ukip during the campaign: “What the party should have done in this election is take on Ukip.
“Some of the pointy-heads at the top of the party thought that Ukip doing well is what we needed. Well, exactly the opposite of that is true if we’re going to have a broad enough coalition to win the election,” he said disparagingly.
‘Metropolitan elite’ Directly criticising Mr Miliband’s leadership, Mr Mann said “the metropolitan elite” running Labour is not listening to other opinions: “And that’s why Labour’s not polling what we should be doing.”
So far, the majority of Conservative MPs have managed to resist the call of a number of colleagues for an election pact between the Conservatives and Ukip in the general election – though tempers will fray between now and tomorrow night’s election results.
Yesterday’s results cannot be translated into straight predictions about next year’s general elections, but it is clear that Ukip could be in the running in a number of constituencies if they find good candidates and run proper campaigns.
However, it is already certain that Ukip will determine the shape of the 2015 result even in constituencies where they cannot win, since the size of the vote they receive in each will determine where Labour or the Conservatives take the seat.
