Britain’s local election results may not create an immediate threat to Boris Johnson’s leadership but they paint a worrying picture for the Conservatives and will deepen divisions within the party. Labour’s satisfaction at dramatic gains in London and an improved position in Scotland will be tempered by its failure to make more progress outside the capital while the Liberal Democrats can celebrate a clear turnaround in their fortunes.
The Conservatives were braced for the loss of Wandsworth, the flagship London council they have held since 1978 but Labour also captured Westminster, which has been run by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964. Keir Starmer will be especially pleased to regain control of Barnet, a borough with a large Jewish population that has three Conservative MPs and turned sharply against Labour under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership.
The party made substantial gains elsewhere in the south-east of England, taking control of Southampton and even of David Cameron's local council in bucolic Oxfordshire. Elsewhere in the south of the country, it was the Liberal Democrats who took seats from the Conservatives, signalling a strong recovery for the party as memories of its role in coalition from 2010 to 2015 fade.
The Conservatives also lost seats in Scotland and Wales, falling into third place in Scotland behind the Scottish National Party (SNP) and Labour. The results will fuel disquiet over Johnson's leadership among Scottish Conservatives, many of whom are on the record as wanting him to go.
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Defeated Conservative councillors blamed public disquiet over the party’s conduct at Westminster, including Johnson’s parties during lockdown and an MP watching pornography in the House of Commons chamber.
The government pointed to Labour's failure to make progress in the so-called Red Wall, where Brexit-backing voters swung behind the Conservatives in recent years. In places like Hartlepool, Labour stood still compared with 2018 when the seats were last contested and the party actually went backwards elsewhere.
Starmer’s supporters point out that the 2018 local elections came before the collapse in Labour’s support the following year so that even matching those results is evidence of progress. And most Conservative-held councils are not up for election this year, so the government may have escaped a more serious rout.
The differing fortunes of the Conservatives in different parts of the country will exacerbate divisions within the party at Westminster between those in the south who fear that Johnson will lose them their seats and some in the north who see him as their only hope of survival. And if the prime minister is safe in Downing Street now he may not remain so for long as more Partygate fines come in and Britain faces a bleak economic outlook of crippling inflation and stagnant growth.