Leaving the European Union would cost British workers a month's salary by 2020 but would reduce net immigration and lower house prices, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said.
Rival campaigns seized on different findings in the report, with those campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU focusing on the economic cost, which OECD secretary general Angel Gurría said would rise as time went on.
"Brexit is like a tax. It is the equivalent to roughly missing out on about one month's income within four years but then it carries on to 2030. That tax is going to be continued to be paid by Britons over time," he told the BBC.
Leave campaigners, who began the day by dismissing the OECD as a tool of the EU, changed their tune when they read the report’s conclusions about the impact of Brexit on immigration. Leaving the EU would cut net immigration by 84,000 a year, but if the economic impact was worse than expected, the net reduction could be as much as 116,000.
“After Brexit, immigration is likely to be restricted more significantly. Despite important growth dividends, immigration remains a major concern for the UK population.
“However, it is unlikely that a decision to restrict the number of immigrants would have a long-run impact on the unemployment of natives. Immigration is also increasing housing demand, creating upward pressure on house prices, which reduces affordability for first-time buyers,” the report said.
Impact on North
Separately, former Northern Ireland secretary of state Peter Mandelson will warn today of the potentially negative effects of a Brexit on the North’s economy, saying it could cast a “long shadow” over the “lives of a generation hoping for prosperity”.
"The risk to Northern Ireland from leaving the EU is wide-ranging and deeply worrying, economically, politically and socially and that risk must be recognised by the rest of the United Kingdom, " Mr Mandelson is to say.
He is also expected to point out that there will be no guarantee that border controls would not be one of the results of a UK exit from Europe.
“The dark memory of border controls along the 310 mile Border loom large for those living in both Northern Ireland and the Republic.
Think tank report
Mr Mandelson will make his comments in response to a report to be published by the Royal United Services Institute – a London based think tank on international defence and security.
The report, by lecturer in strategic studies at the University of Portsmouth Edward Burke, states that a “departure from the EU could see Northern Ireland re-emerging as a major political, security and economic crisis for future governments in London”.
Meanwhile, surveyors in the North are also advising that in their opinion Brexit would have a “negative impact” on the local commercial property market.
According to new research from the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors, the housing market in Northern Ireland has been “relatively resilient” despite the uncertainty surrounding the lead up to the UK referendum on June 23rd.
